It appears that Syria is about to fall into the hands of rebel forces as they begin their fight to topple the Assad regime in the capital city of Damascus. The Islamist rebel group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has already taken over both Hama and Aleppo, the country’s second largest city.
Russia, who would normally aid Assad with rebels, is a little busy with his war in Ukraine and doesn’t appear to be willing or able to help.
No one else is rushing to help Assad either and this may soon be the end of his regime in Syria.
Here’s more from the Daily Mail:
Russia does not seem ‘able or perhaps even willing’ to save Bashar al-Assad, an expert has assessed as rebels continue to make gains in their renewed push in Syria.
Charles Lister, director of the Syria and countering terrorism and extremism programs at the Middle East Institute, told Bloomberg that Assad’s future has ‘never looked more fragile’ as the opposition encroaches on Homs and allied support withers.
Rebels proclaimed a major victory as they took the city of Hama on Thursday, and are now just a few miles from Homs, the last major city on the way to the capital, Damascus.
The lightning advance, little more than a week old, comes as a staggering blow to the Assad regime and his allies in Russia and Iran, marking the fastest battlefield advance by either since since a rebellion against Assad descended into civil war 13 years ago.
While capturing Homs could close the land route between the government and Tartus, home to Russia’s only Mediterranean port, Russia appears not to be in a position to help Assad regain ground with focus and resources directed to Ukraine.
‘Russia doesn’t have a plan to save Assad and doesn’t see one emerging as long as the Syrian president’s army continues to abandon its positions,’ a source ‘close to the Kremlin’ told Bloomberg.
Iran, likewise, has been hesitant, or unable, to funnel its support to Syria. On Friday, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he would would only help Assad ‘to the extent necessary’, but previously promised to ‘consider’ sending troops.
The capture of Hama has given the rebel forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), control of a strategic central city they never managed to seize before.
Homs is the next target for the rebels, deemed crucial for Assad’s hopes of staying in power.
‘Assad now cannot afford to lose anything else. The big battle is the one coming against Homs. If Homs falls, we are talking of a potential change of regime,’ Jihad Yazigi, editor of the Syria Report newsletter, told Reuters.
It follows a staggering effort to seize Aleppo, the main northern city in Syria, last week as part of a blitz offensive beginning on November 27.
Rebel forces were just 12 miles (20km) from Damascus by 11am GMT on Saturday, posing an imminent threat to the capital, according to a war monitor and rebels.
The Syrian army reportedly withdrew its forces from all towns about 10km from the capital, a monitor reported soon after.
Israel is said to be already preparing for regime change in Syria and are worried about their border with Syria at the Golan Heights. They are telling rebel forces to stay away from the border:
TIMES OF ISRAEL – Israel is said to be preparing for the possibility that the Syrian army may collapse in the face of rapidly advancing rebel forces, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holding security deliberations on the matter on Thursday night.
Channel 13 reported that the IDF now assesses the rebels may pose a real threat to the continuation of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s rule. According to a report on Channel 12, Israel has been surprised by the weakness of the Syrian army, as it continues to swiftly lose ground to the jihadist-led fighters.
The report added that Israel has sent a strong warning to Iran not to send weaponry to Syria that could reach the hands of the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon.
Kan news reported, citing two unnamed sources, that Israel and the United States are “detecting signs of certain collapse” in the Syrian army, and that one of Israel’s main concerns is that the rebels will advance as far south as the Israeli border with Syria in the Golan Heights.
Channel 13 said Israel has conveyed messages to rebel leaders to stay away from the border.
People in the west may hate Assad for his past butchery, especially with the chemical weapons to maintain control of the country, but Syria falling into the hands of Islamist rebels would likely be far worse for the Middle East and could pose a very serious threat to Israel.
The New York Post writes…
Even as the West decried Assad’s atrocities, there has been no rush to dismantle the fragile, brutal system he represents.
Behind this uncertainty lies a quiet calculation: Would Assad’s removal lead to a better Syria — or unleash even more chaos and extremism?
While few would mourn Assad himself, many in the world community — perhaps even among his regional adversaries — may not be so enthused about seeing him toppled.
Butcher though he may be, the Syrian dictator has maintained some support both in the region and in his country — especially among Syrian Christians and Druze, who fear persecution under Islamist rule.
Assad’s secular regime has refrained from direct provocations against Israel and seems sanguine about Israel’s continued occupation of the Golan Heights. The Syrian civil war destabilized Lebanon, which took in hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees but has not spread to Jordan — a primary US concern.
If Assad is replaced by Islamists sympathetic to Al Qaida, neighboring countries like Lebanon, Jordan, and Israel would be directly threatened. Extremists could gain access to Syria’s chemical weapons and potentially use the country as a launchpad for jihadist recruitment and terrorism.
Such a regime would suppress minorities like Christians, Alawites, and Druze, while women’s rights would suffer.
⭐️ President-elect Trump weighed in this morning on the coup happening in Syria, saying it is not our fight and that the US should stay out of it:
Opposition fighters in Syria, in an unprecedented move, have totally taken over numerous cities, in a highly coordinated offensive, and are now on the outskirts of Damascus, obviously preparing to make a very big move toward taking out Assad. Russia, because they are so tied up in Ukraine, and with the loss there of over 600,000 soldiers, seems incapable of stopping this literal march through Syria, a country they have protected for years. This is where former President Obama refused to honor his commitment of protecting the RED LINE IN THE SAND, and all hell broke out, with Russia stepping in. But now they are, like possibly Assad himself, being forced out, and it may actually be the best thing that can happen to them. There was never much of a benefit in Syria for Russia, other than to make Obama look really stupid. In any event, Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!
It may not be our fight and I certainly don’t believe we should intervene. But it may be our fight in the future as this could be a huge threat to Israel and, behind the scenes on all of this, is how Turkey may be benefiting from regime change in Syria. If I remember correctly, Erdogan was behind the free Syrian army who tried to topple Assad during the Obama administration. He’s no doubt invested in this as well and the question I have is if he will he end up with proxy control of Syria when Assad is gone.