This morning Vladimir Putin gave a presidential address to his nation as an angry Russian military commander is seeking to overthrow him.

Before I get to the Putin address, here’s a little background on what’s going on in Russia. Warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin is the commander of the Wagner Private Military Company and has been fighting for Russia in Ukraine, among other places. In short, they are angry at Putin over how the war is going:

Warlord Prigozhin’s army has already crossed into Russia and the move follows months of feuds between Wagner and Moscow, which recently have developed into accusations by the group that they have come under actual attack by theoretically allied Russian forces. Prigozhin accuses the Russian government, and particularly Russian Minister of Defence Sergey Shoigu of corruption and incompetence and says his army is now on a “march for freedom” to Moscow.

Per an intelligence digest by Britain’s Ministry of Defence this morning, the Wagner Mercenaries are proceeding towards Russia without meeting resistance and have occupied Rostov-on-Don, the “HQ which runs Russia’s military operations in Ukraine”. Given how little fighting there is as Wagner’s troops move north through Rostov and Voronezh, it seems likely Russian security forces “have likely remained passive”, in other words, waved the mercenaries through.

Here’s another summary explanation from AG Hamilton no Twitter:

“There is a lot of resentment from Wagner and Russians generally due to the costs of the war. They don’t care about this war but are forced to fight it and are losing. Now comes Wagner, only group perceived as having some success, and their leader is openly blaming the lies and corruption of the military/defense leadership for what is happening. That makes him a target for that leadership. He’s publicly acknowledging that Russia is losing and it’s costing them up to 1K Russians per day, which they all know but weren’t allowed to acknowledge … and doing so equals a prison sentence. So YP likely felt it was him or them at this point to fight for survival and there is far more loyalty to him because of the success Wagner has had than to these corrupt MoD leaders. So he’s taking his shot and he has a lot of secret support, including in the defense apparatus.”

I should add that Prigozhin says he’s trying to overthrow Putin without interfering with the war effort in Ukraine. He doesn’t want to be responsible or blamed for Russia losing the war.

This morning Putin addressed his nation over this warlord’s march to Moscow, calling them treasonous and betrayers and vowed to react harshly to deal punishment to this group:

I haven’t seen anyone predicting that Prigozhin can be successful against Putin. His forces apparently number only about 25k and some feel he’ll be crushed by Putin. But AG Hamilton raises an interesting question: