We are told that the swing states that will decide the presidential election in 2024 consists of six states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In the last 24 hours we have seen new polling in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Arizona that doesn’t look good for Joe Biden.

First up, Nevada. In a head to head matchup Trump is +5 in a new poll by Noble Predictive Insights. When you add in the other candidates running, Trump goes up +7 on Biden:

 
Next up, Pennsylvania. A new Emerson poll shows Trump is up +4 over Biden. A Fox News poll shows Trump up +2 in a head to head matchup and a tie when all the other candidates are added.

 
Last up is Arizona, where Trump also leads Biden by +4 in a head to head match up for with all the candidates:

 
Finally, here are the polling averages from FiveThirtyEight in these swing states and others. You see that Trump leads in nearly all of them: