Five out of six pollsters or organizations are predicting that Trump will win the election before tonight’s big debate showdown, including Nate Silver.

Here’s the Interactive Polls:

???????? Presidential Election Forecast (6/27)

@TheEconomist
(Electoral College)

???? Trump: 303 ????
???? Biden: 235

Chance of winning
???? Trump: 71%
???? Biden: 29%
——
@NateSilver538
(Electoral College)

???? Trump: 287 ????
???? Biden: 250

Chance of winning
???? Trump: 66%
???? Biden: 34%
——
@jhkersting
Forecast (Electoral College)

???? Trump: 291 ????
???? Biden: 247

Chance of winning
???? Trump: 64%
???? Biden: 36%
——
@DecisionDeskHQ
(Electoral College)

???? Trump: 280 ????
???? Biden: 258

Chance of winning
???? Trump: 56%
???? Biden: 42%
——
@FiveThirtyEight
(Electoral College)

???? Biden: 270 ????
???? Trump: 268

Chance of winning
???? Biden: 50%
???? Trump: 50%
——
@Polymarket
(chance of winning)

???? Trump: 60%
???? Biden: 34%

Joe Concha adds: “Nate Silver’s 538 forecast also had Trump winning the popular vote. If that happens, it would mark the first time a Republican has won the popular vote since 2004.”

Some are saying tonight’s debate is one of the few events that could have a big effect on the presidential race. Or nothing could change.

I will have a debate thread up tonight for you to weigh in on the debate while it’s happening.