Fox News came out with a nationwide poll recently that showed Biden had jumped in the lead by 2 points over Trump, swing 3 points in his favor since May.

Everyone is running with it and you can believe Biden will mention it on Thursday night.

But does the polls really indicate that Trump is losing? No they don’t.

According to Real Clear Politics, Trump is still leading in most of the swing states and his lead has been “remarkably stable” for the past eight months:

 
That’s not enough for me. Let’s look at the polling data for each swing state:

That looks better. If we extrapolate from this the electoral votes and give Trump every state in which he is leading and Biden the two states in which they are tied (plus Minnesota and Virginia where Biden currently leads), then let’s see what happens:

That would put Biden at 253 and Trump at 287: Trump wins and becomes the next president.

Now I know that these are polls and are subject to change, but the biggest takeaway from this is how crucial Pennsylvania will be in this election. If that one state were to swing towards Biden, he’d win. But if Trump can maintain his lead and win the state, it’s all over.

Another scenario could be that if Trump loses Pennsylvania and still wins either Michigan or Wisconsin, he still wins.

The bottom line is that this election is by no means a gift for either candidate. And the one thing that Biden has going for him is that Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are all traditionally blue states where election shenanigans are more likely to take place. It is quite conceivable that even without said shenanigans, Trump could still lose.

But for now, at least, the polls show Trump easily winning. Let’s hope it stays that way.