


The Economist released their post-debate swing state predictions based on polling and they are indeed devastating.
In their overall prediction for who will win, they show Trump with a massive lead (via Interactive Polls):
???? Trump: 73% (new high)
???? Biden: 26%
On May 11, they had Trump winning with 55% to Biden’s 44%.
They also predict Trump will win the election with 308 electors:
???? Trump: 308 ????
???? Biden: 230
I was thinking it would be a lot closer, but then that was before the debate.
Below is their predictions for each swing state:
Swing States (chance of winning)
PENNSYLVANIA
???? Trump: 72%
???? Biden: 28%
PA Projected margin: Trump +3
—
WISCONSIN
???? Trump: 68%
???? Biden: 32%
WI Projected margin: Trump +3
—
MICHIGAN
???? Trump: 65%
???? Biden: 35%
MI Projected margin: Trump +2
—
ARIZONA
???? Trump: 76%
???? Biden: 24%
AZ Projected margin: Trump +5
—
GEORGIA
???? Trump: 79%
???? Biden: 21%
GA Projected margin: Trump +5
—
NEVADA
???? Trump: 64%
???? Biden: 36%
NV projected margin: Trump +3
I could be wrong, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the reason to put this out there is to pressure Biden to drop out. I don’t follow The Economist, but I expect that their bias is like all the others – against Trump. And this is indeed pretty drastic.
But there again, I would expect drastic after Biden’s disastrous debate performance. So maybe they are more interested in accuracy than anything else.
But you can be sure of one thing. If these polling predictions don’t get any better in a month, the pressure for Biden to drop out ahead of the DNC will be overwhelming.