Axios is reporting tonight on President Trump’s biggest concerns about entering this war, even with just a surgical strike, to take out Iran’s most heavily fortified nuclear site.
In short, he must be convinced that the MOPs will actually do the job, the attack is completely necessary and it won’t drag the US into a wider Middle East war.
Here’s more:
One key question is on President Trump’s mind these days, his advisers say: If the U.S. joins Israel’s war and drops its massive bunker busters, will they actually destroy Iran’s most heavily fortified nuclear facility?
Trump’s doubts Wednesday about the certainty of success are one reason he was still questioning whether to move forward with a strike.
Trump wants to make sure such an attack is really needed, wouldn’t drag the U.S. into a prolonged war in the Middle East — and most of all, would actually achieve the objective of destroying Iran’s nuclear program, U.S. officials say.
“We’re going to be ready to strike Iran. We’re not convinced yet that we’re necessary. And we want to be unnecessary, but I think the president’s just not convinced we are needed yet,” a U.S. official said.
Trump enters the war it almost certainly would be to destroy the Fordow uranium enrichment site, which is built into a mountain south of Tehran.
Trump has specifically asked his military advisers whether the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) would destroy Fordow, a U.S. official said.
Pentagon officials told Trump they’re confident it would, according to the official. But it’s not clear Trump was totally convinced.
MOPs have never been used on the battlefield, though they went through several tests during development, current and former U.S. officials say.
“The bunker buster will work. It’s not a capabilities issue. We have the capability. But there’s an entire plan (for a possible attack). It’s not just drop a bunker buster and declare victory,” another top U.S. official said.
“The end game for us is simple: no nuke,” that official said. “It may be different for the Israelis. And we would be willing to, if it’s within reason, go in there and do a surgical strike — maybe, if necessary” and if the president considers it “logical and effective,” the official said.
Trump held on Wednesday another Situation Room meeting with his top national security team on the war between Israel and Iran.
“The president’s patience is running thin every minute that passes. The clock is really ticking for Iran, and all options are on the table,” a U.S. official said.
Speaking with reporters ahead of the meeting, Trump said he hadn’t made up his mind about launching a strike against Iran and stressed he hadn’t closed the door on a diplomatic solution.
Iran’s mission to the UN tweeted Wednesday that Tehran would “NOT negotiate under duress,” particularly with “a has-been warmonger clinging to relevance,” an apparent reference to Netanyahu. But there have been other indications the Iranians are willing to talk.
I really do believe we have the right leader making these decisions. Nobody wants to see a prolonged conflict if we decide to destroy Fordow. And, if the Israelis can do significant damage to Fordow, then do we need to?
Israeli officials believe Trump will decide in favor of a U.S. strike, but contend they could cause significant damage to the Fordow facility even if forced to go it alone.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ambassador to Washington Yechiel Leiter hinted in recent interviews that the Israel Defense Forces have options beyond just airstrikes.
One could be a risky commando raid. Israeli special forces conducted such an operation last September, albeit on a smaller scale, when they destroyed an underground missile factory in Syria by planting and detonating explosives.
Boots on the ground is definitely a much riskier option, assuming Trump decides not to get involved, but an option nonetheless. I guess we’ll see what Trump decides to do.