NRPLUS MEMBER ARTICLE I f you have been scanning the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/16/us/politics/niger-coup-terrorism-russia.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">headlines</a>&nbsp;lately, you might think that the entire U.S. counterterrorism apparatus in Africa is at risk of collapse after the Nigerien military in late July arrested its own president, suspended the country’s constitution, and took power for itself.

NPR accurately summed up the media narrative behind the coup (which the Biden administration still refuses to officially call a coup) in a report immediately after Nigerien president Mohamed Bazoum was detained and effectively held hostage by his own presidential guards: “Niger is vital to U.S. counterterrorism efforts in Africa.” The Associated Press <a href="https://apnews.com/article/coup-niger-sahara-extremist-wagner-323c94199b9dff4c00479f1d0fcbbffe" target="_blank" rel="noopener">on August 4 ran a story</a> that suggested that the U.S. was close to losing its last counterterrorism partner in the Sahel region of Africa — and, with it, access to a number of U.S. bases in the country. Mamadou Kiari Liman-Tinguiri, Niger’s ambassador to the U.S., used a short op-ed in the Wall Street Journal to warn that if the coup stands, the U.S. “will soon be forced to withdraw its forces, giving Islamist terrorists free rein to plan violent acts.”

All of this sounds bleak on its face. But the&nbsp;American people don’t need to wonder whether the U.S. is now closer to another 9/11-style terrorist attack, this time originating in the Sahel. While it’s troubling that the region’s last&nbsp;remaining democracy is now crushed under the Nigerien junta’s boots, the risks for the U.S. are manageable. U.S. interests in the Sahel are narrow and&nbsp;won’t rise or fall based on how Niger is governed or even on whether the U.S.&nbsp;military maintains a continuous presence there.

For starters, we should be clear about how ordinary this event is. Yes, while the number of coups globally&nbsp;has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/07/22/map-the-world-of-coups-since-1950/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">gone down considerably</a>&nbsp;since the end of the Cold War, West Africa and the Sahel have seen their fair share over the past three years. Mali&nbsp;experienced <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/mali/mali-un-coup-dans-le-coup" target="_blank" rel="noopener">two coups</a>, one in 2020 and one in 2021. Sudan’s generals reneged on a power-sharing formula with Sudanese prime minister Abdalla Hamdok in October 2021, derailing the fragile political transition there. (The country’s two top military men have since plunged the country into civil war.) Guinea’s civilian president was ousted by Colonel Mamady Doumbouya in <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-58461971" target="_blank" rel="noopener">September 2021</a>.&nbsp;Burkina Faso was at the center of two coups in 2022.&nbsp;Niger, a nation that has had <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/27/timeline-a-history-of-coups-in-niger" target="_blank" rel="noopener">five coups</a> since it declared&nbsp;independence from France in 1960, is only the latest to see men with guns use the power at their disposal to oust civilian governments they don’t like. In short: While we like to think of ourselves as&nbsp;living in a more enlightened time, with universally respected laws and norms,&nbsp;military juntas still exist. It’s a reality the U.S. has to deal with, not wish away.

Ultimately, who governs what in Africa is a tertiary concern for the U.S. What the Biden administration is most worried about is the prospect of jihadist groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State running rampant over the region, massacring civilians, and creating ministates for themselves. The U.S. national-security establishment apparently feels the same way; the U.S. State Department has yet to officially declare what occurred last month in Niger a coup because U.S. law would force it to cut off security assistance to the Nigerien military. Niger has been the recipient&nbsp;of approximately <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/niger-coup-us-russia-africa-86cf1454" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$500 million</a>&nbsp;in security aid by the U.S. since 2012 and hosts at least three U.S.&nbsp;outposts, including&nbsp;the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/22/us/politics/drone-base-niger.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$110 million drone base</a> in Agadez.

Niger is an investment that Pentagon officials don’t want to give up at a loss. The Biden administration is searching for a way to square the proverbial circle by condemning the Nigerien junta for its attack on democracy while maintaining a relationship with the new de facto authorities. As a former U.S. commander of Special Operations Command Africa <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/17/politics/niger-biden-administration-us-forces/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told CNN</a>,&nbsp;“Niger is our access to the Sahel, and the appearance is now that we’re going to lose it, barring some creative way to not call this a coup.”

But let’s be honest: It’s not like the U.S. is tied to Niger at the hip. To think so is to give the junta more power and leverage over U.S. decision-making than it deserves. If push comes to shove, the U.S. could theoretically find alternative basing arrangements in the immediate region. This obviously wouldn’t be simple and would entail a series of complicated negotiations. Some countries, such as Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Libya, and Algeria, will be off limits. But others, such as Chad, Nigeria, and Cameroon, could certainly be options. U.S. defense officials are already <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/us-military-preparing-for-worst-case-scenario-evacuation-from-niger/7231099.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">scouting potential locations</a> in the event that the Nigerien junta asks U.S. forces to pack up and leave.

And what if the U.S. can’t find a new spot? Should&nbsp;panic ensue? Again, probably not. While West Africa and the Sahel are home to a conglomeration of terrorist groups with the IS or al-Qaeda name, none of these organizations have demonstrated the intent or desire to attack Western targets. They are willing to operate under the al-Qaeda or IS name not&nbsp;because they share the same global objectives but because it’s an opportunistic way to&nbsp;attract <a href="https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2023/08/time-change-us-policy-toward-niger-and-its-west-african-neighbors/389245/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recruits and funding</a>. Notably, not a single terrorist attack against the U.S. has been traced back to a West African terrorist group. How much of this can be linked to Washington’s long-term counterterrorism presence in the area is hard to tell, but at least some of it reflects positively on just how lethal the U.S. counterterrorism network is. The best way for a terrorist group to attract unwanted U.S. attention is, after all, to attack a U.S. target.

While terrorism is undeniably a problem for governments in the region (the Pentagon-linked African Center for Strategic Studies <a href="https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africa-militant-islamist-group-linked-fatalities-at-all-time-high/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> in July that the number of violent events from Islamist groups since 2021 has doubled), these attacks serve the objective of instigating the collapse of the ruling regimes — many of which are notoriously brutal, corrupt, and ineffective in their own right.

Bottom line: Media hyperventilation notwithstanding, the reality is that the U.S. will be just fine regardless of the political events transpiring over 5,000 miles away.

The West African nation represents an investment that Pentagon officials don’t want to give up at a loss.{ai:summary}The U.S. counterterrorism apparatus in Africa is not at risk of collapse due to the recent coup in Niger. While it is concerning, the U.S. interests in the region are narrow and manageable. The Biden administration is looking for ways to condemn the junta while maintaining a relationship with the new authorities. If necessary, the U.S. can find alternative basing arrangements in nearby countries. The terrorist groups in West Africa and the Sahel have not shown intent or desire to attack Western targets, and there have been no terrorist attacks traced back to them against the U.S. #foreignaffairs