By speaking the truth clearly, Trump has sent a clarion call to both our allies and our adversaries.
K udos to President Trump. For months, he tried everything he could to get Vladimir Putin to the peace table. But every effort was met with empty gestures and ever more lethal strikes on Ukrainian schools, hospitals, churches, and homes.
Fortunately, Trump is a realist. He realizes there can be no peace when the invading army is determined to keep fighting. This week, he acknowledged three important realities about the war. In doing so, he gave our Ukrainian and Western allies hope for eventual victory and lasting peace in Ukraine and Europe.
First, Trump made it clear that Ukraine has both the right and the ability to regain all the territory Russia has taken via military aggression (accompanied by brutal and widespread war crimes) in the past twelve years. That is in accordance with international law and the demands of the large majority of Western democracies, and it sends the right message to wannabe invaders everywhere. But it will be neither easy nor cheap. Trump’s statement makes it clear that a return to Ukraine’s original borders is absolutely possible and in fact necessary for a just and lasting peace. Of course, it took Trump a while to get to that position. How and why he did brings us to the second point he made clear this week.
The president understands that Russia no longer holds “all the cards,” as he stated at the ill-fated White House meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky in late February. The complete failure of Russia’s much-ballyhooed summer offensive put to rest Putin’s boast that Russian victory was inevitable. In fact, Russia has suffered over 1 million casualties and the loss of over 4,000 of its main battle tanks since its invasion of Ukraine. Since Russia was estimated to have had only 4,000 main battle tanks when it invaded, this is a shocking loss rate. The Russian air force has lost an estimated 10–15 percent of its aircraft and has never come close to establishing air superiority over Ukraine. Similarly, the Russian navy has lost at least one-third of its Black Sea fleet and has now essentially abandoned that strategic area, an artery vital for Ukraine’s grain exports, entirely. On the other hand, the Ukrainians’ ability to build their own powerful long-range missiles and stealthy long-range delivery systems for their drones has put most of Russia’s military and petrochemical facilities in range. Wholesale gas prices in Russia are up over 50 percent since January, long lines for gas are everywhere, and an estimated 15–20 percent of Russia’s petrochemical production facilities are offline due to Ukrainian attacks. So, it now appears that Ukraine “has the cards.” Despite the many challenges the Ukrainian military faces, this is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. Trump acknowledged that by calling Russia a “paper tiger” in his September 23 Truth Social post. His recent ringing endorsement of Zelensky is also notable: “He’s a brave man, and he’s putting up one hell of a fight.”
The third reality Trump alluded to was the combination of staggering economic and military losses that now have the Russian state facing potential collapse in the next twelve to 18 months unless it changes course in Ukraine. As Trump wrote in the above-mentioned Truth Social post, “Putin and Russia are in BIG economic trouble.” Indeed, entire Russian industries, including automotive, mining, banking, tourism, and civil aviation, are at risk of failure. With an estimated 800,000 to 1.2 million well-educated young Russians having fled the country since the start of the war, Russia’s high-tech sector has been essentially gutted. And the Russian National Wealth Fund, which reported $117 billion in liquid assets in 2021, has been drained to pay for much of Russia’s war in Ukraine. As of this June, it was estimated to have fallen to $31 billion in liquid assets. Some economists believe it will be out of liquid reserves by year’s end. Inflation and interest rates in Russia are said to be sky high, and real economic growth will be close to zero this year. Government budget deficits continue to rise sharply and are unsustainable. In short, Russia cannot afford to continue the war at anywhere near this pace for much longer. An economic reckoning is not far off.
By speaking the truth so clearly, Trump has sent a clarion call to both our allies and our adversaries. For our allies, victory and a just peace in Ukraine are within sight if we work together effectively. For our adversaries, their costly efforts to stymie the cause of liberty, democracy, and the rule of law will not succeed, at least not in this generation. If he stays the course, Trump can lead the democratic nations of the world to the most important global triumph since Reagan won the Cold War. But he must now step up and ensure the USA, along with our NATO partners, strongly supports Ukraine militarily and economically. Anything less risks allowing Ukraine to devolve into a forever war in which the collective West is the loser, no matter the eventual outcome.