The Republican megabill to codify President Donald Trump’s domestic policy agenda would add $2.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, according to an analysis from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.
The CBO estimates the “Big, Beautiful Bill” would lower tax revenues by $3.7 trillion and cut spending $1.3 trillion, creating $2.4 trillion in new debt. The non-partisan analysis factors in last minute changes to the House Republican version of the bill, including stricter Medicaid work requirements and a higher State and Local Tax Deduction (SALT), a top demand for New York lawmakers.
Top Trump administration budget official Russell Vought reacted to the CBO’s finding, contending that it actually shows the GOP legislation reduces the deficit when its policy baseline is adjusted.
“OMB just reviewed the new CBO score of the One Big Beautiful bill. It confirms what we knew about the bill at House passage,” Vought stated on X.
“The bill REDUCES deficits by $1.4 trillion over ten years when you adjust for CBO’s one big gimmick–not using a realistic current policy baseline. It includes $1.7 trillion in mandatory savings, the most in history. If you care about deficits and debt, this bill dramatically improves the fiscal picture.”
The Trump administration has accused the CBO of being a partisan, left-wing institution with a track record of incorrect economic forecasts.
“Unfortunately, this is an institution in our country that has become partisan and political,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday. She also called the CBO “historically wrong” and said its forecast for Trump’s 2017 tax cut was off by $500 billion.
Fiscal conservatives such as Senators Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Rand Paul of Kentucky have voiced concerns about the legislation’s impact on the national debt, a figure that exceeds $36 trillion and continues to increase. Billionaire Elon Musk has come out against the legislation because of its impact on the national debt, making his concerns known publicly right after his tenure with the Trump administration came to an end.
“This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination,” Musk said on X Tuesday.
The “big, beautiful” bill would permanently codify many provisions from President Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, while increasing spending on border security and the military. It also features child savings accounts, known as “Trump accounts,” and tax exemptions for overtime and tips, two promises Trump made on the campaign trail.
Getting the bill through the House was a major victory for Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.), who had to bring together different factions of the extremely narrow House Republican majority to get it through. It now faces an uncertain future in the GOP-controlled Senate, although only a simple majority will be needed to get it through under budget reconciliation.
Democrats have attempted to hammer Republicans for the Medicaid work requirements, accusing them of cutting the program and prioritizing tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy. The CBO estimate says that 10.9 million people would lose health insurance because of changes to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act in the House Republican legislation.
White House officials have crafted messaging on “strengthening” and “protecting” Medicaid with the work requirements, ensuring that able-bodied adults are not taking advantage of the program. President Trump and Republican Senator Josh Hawley (Mo.) have voiced their opposition to steep Medicaid cuts, which could be politically costly for Republicans in competitive seats during an uphill 2026 midterm cycle.