A new poll released Saturday by The New York Times and Siena College shows more warning signs for President Biden heading into the general election.
Former president Donald Trump is leading Biden by five points overall among registered voters, 48 percent to 43 percent, with 10 percent uncommitted. Trump is ahead by four points with the likely electorate.
Biden’s support among registered black voters is down to 66 percent, a significant reduction from his 2020 election total. Trump is leading Biden among registered white voters at 53 percent and hispanic voters at 46 percent, NYT and Siena found. Independents are deadlocked, with 42 percent of registered independent voters supporting Biden and Trump respectively. The figures are similar with the likely electorate as 71 percent of likely black voters support Biden, and Biden leads by four with likely independent voters.
A whopping 97 percent of registered voters who selected Trump in 2020 will do so again, a higher total than the 83 percent who will vote for Biden after doing so four years ago. Notably, 10 percent of Biden’s supporters four years ago are now committed to Trump.
Registered voters are widely dissatisfied with how Biden is running the country, with only one in four believing the country is moving in the right direction. Less than one fifth of registered voters say Biden’s policies have helped them, compared to 43% who believe they have hurt them personally. A majority of registered voters believe the economy is in poor shape and 47 percent of them strongly disapprove of Biden’s job performance. The figures are nearly identical among the likely electorate.
Democratic primary voters are less enthusiastic about Biden than Republican primary voters are for Trump. Two-thirds of Democratic primary voters are either satisfied but not enthusiastic, or dissatisfied but not upset with Biden.
More than three quarters of Republican primary voters are either enthusiastic about Trump or satisfied but not enthusiastic, with 48 percent of them expressing enthusiasm towards the former president. Trump is the presumptive Republican presidential nominee ahead of Super Tuesday, when over a dozen states will be holding primaries. Independent party affiliation is the most popular among registered voters at 34 percent, compared to 30 percent for the GOP and 29 percent for Democrats.
Both presidential candidates are unpopular among registered voters. Trump has a 44 percent net favorability rating, five points higher than Biden’s net favorability. The former president is very unfavorable with 43 percent of registered voters, one percentage point higher than Biden. Vice President Kamala Harris’ favorability rating, 36 percent, is worse than both Biden and Trump.
The NYT and Siena poll surveyed 980 registered voters nationwide and the margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.