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National Review
National Review
21 Aug 2023
Ari Blaff


NextImg:Trump Boasts Massive Lead in New Iowa Poll; Most Caucus-Goers Don’t Believe He’s Committed Serious Crimes

Donald Trump holds a 20-plus point lead over rival Ron DeSantis among likely Republican voters in Iowa heading into the GOP’s first debate later this week, a new poll conducted by the Des Moines Register and NBC News found.

The former president remains the first-choice option for over 40 percent of respondents, giving Trump the largest caucus lead since George W. Bush’s presidential campaign in 2000. Notably, two-thirds of potential Republican caucus-goers do not believe Trump committed any serious crimes despite his facing four criminal indictments in Florida, New York, Washington, D.C., and Georgia.

“I think well over 90% of it — if not 100% of it — is all politically motivated,” one poll respondent – whose first choice is Governor DeSantis, followed by Senator Tim Scott (R., S.C.) – told NBC concerning the looming trials against Trump.

After the clear favorite, DeSantis placed comfortably in second with 19 percent of respondents naming him as their first choice, followed by Scott with 9 percent, and third place being evenly split between former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley and former vice president Mike Pence (both 6 percent).

However, the composition of support between Trump and DeSantis is notably different. Whereas two-thirds of the former president’s supporters maintain that their “mind is made up,” less than a third of the governor’s likely backers feel the same way. Conversely, nearly 70 percent of potential DeSantis caucus-goers are open to changing their minds and voting for another candidate.

Although Trump is leading the pack among “first choice” candidates, when the scope of the question was broadened to include candidates being “actively” considered, the race tightens considerably. Sixty-three percent of caucus-goers are considering Trump as a first or second choice while 61 percent say the same for DeSantis.

“I’ve been doing this for a long time,” the pollster J. Ann Selzer told NBC on Monday. “We have had candidates who started low and ended up winning.”

“Anyone can come to Iowa and win. Anybody.”

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Trump is expected to skip the first Republican primary debate this Wednesday and instead speak with former Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson.