NRPLUS MEMBER ARTICLE {O} n her Instagram page, Nikki Haley makes quite a show of her support for law enforcement.
“A Haley administration will always have the backs of our law enforcement,” she promises, adding, “you take care of those who take care of you.”
When discussing closing the U.S.-Mexico border, the former United Nations ambassador and South Carolina governor further emphasizes the need to enforce our nation’s laws. “The second we stop being a country of laws,” she says in a somber photo overlaid with her quote, “we give up everything this nation was founded on.”
Yet when the Republican candidates were asked on a debate stage in late August whether they would support Donald Trump for president even if he were convicted of felonies, Haley’s hand shot up. Earlier this year, she said that “for the good of the country,” she would be inclined to offer Trump a pardon for any federal crimes he had committed.
Okay, so maybe we can be a country of some laws. And clearly she wasn’t talking about backing those law-enforcement officers — the ones prosecuting Trump.
The good news for Haley is that in the vital early state of New Hampshire, she now appears to be “surging,” which in 2023-speak means “in second place, but still 30 percentage points behind Trump.” A recent USA Today/Suffolk poll now has Haley at 19 percent in the Granite State, nearly double the fast-collapsing Ron DeSantis.
In fact, despite her penchant for holding spectacularly incongruous positions, Haley appears to have the best chance of taking out Trump and winning the nomination. But is she gaining momentum despite her head-scratching public utterances or because of them?
More traditional conservatives are taking Haley’s recent rise as evidence that the party is regaining its sanity. Haley, after all, has looked strong in the debates, chastising other candidates for their profligate spending and their weak stances on funding the war in Ukraine. She has been a steadfast and unwavering supporter of Israel, long before Hamas’s barbarous October 7 attack. And seeing someone yell at a smug twerp like Vivek Ramaswamy is always a good salve for the soul.
But is it these Republican smash hits of days of yore that are driving her surge, or is it the new performative, MAGA-style bromides she’s been serving up? For instance, at one point during the first debate, she declared that “wokeness is a virus more dangerous than any pandemic,” a position that can’t possibly be held by anyone smarter than an eggplant. (Professors asking their students to announce their pronouns in class did not kill 1 million Americans.)
Further, as a centerpiece of her campaign, she has exhumed a number of 1990s-era conservative gimmicks like instituting congressional term limits and withholding pay from members of Congress until a budget is complete. Perhaps if she has enough money left in her campaign, she can convince Spuds MacKenzie or the California Raisins to film a campaign ad on her behalf.
And, of course, there is her consistent cowering when it comes to Donald Trump. Asked after the debate to explain her raised hand, Haley said, “Any Republican is better than what Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are doing.”
Really? Even a Republican who might have to conduct the country’s business from behind bars? If this is the best Haley can do, she’s not exactly standing up to the old boss.
This sucking up to Trump is doing irreparable damage to Haley’s carefully cultivated “iron fist” image. Currently, you are more likely to find the words “my pronouns are” on her Instagram page than the words “Donald Trump.” Which leads to the obvious question — if you can’t explain to people why you’d be a better president than someone facing over 90 felony counts, what are you even doing in the race?
The experienced political minds will tell you that Haley is simply doing what she has to do to outlast the rest of the field, so she can then take Trump on one-on-one. Had she, for instance, refused to commit to supporting a potential convicted felon on the debate stage, she might as well have announced her withdrawal from the race. Haley and Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson would be coordinating schedules to make sure they didn’t drop out of the race on the same day.
Haley herself said about as much, claiming she raised her hand only because she signed a pledge to support the eventual GOP candidate. And she said the American people were too “smart” to vote for a convicted criminal, even though she publicly vowed to do just that.
Needless to say, “The only person dumb enough to vote for Donald Trump is me” is a suboptimal campaign message. But 2023, man.
Despite all this, for now, Haley looks to be the most likely candidate to take Trump’s place were he to falter. And she does have a long history of being a responsible, conservative grown-up in times of stress, leading some hard-squinting Never Trumpers to see someone they could support.
The problem, of course, is that with so many candidates still in the race, the numbers don’t add up. In New Hampshire and her native South Carolina, for instance, Haley could double her support and still be 10 percent behind Trump.
This is why Haley has no shot unless the field begins to winnow, and fast. Last week, George Will called for Haley’s fellow South Carolinian, Senator Tim Scott, to drop out of the race and support her. But Will, who is almost always fully right, is only half right in this instance. Everyone not named “Haley” or “DeSantis” needs to drop out of the race immediately and throw their support behind one of those two.
(Will’s column carried the unique disclaimer that his wife, Mari, serves as an adviser for Tim Scott and “disagrees” with his call for the senator to drop out of the race, leaving readers with the image of George Will walking the aisles of Target in search of a futon.)
Of course, candidates’ dropping out of the race to support Haley is not likely to happen, especially since some are outright auditioning for a role in the new Trump administration. Ramaswamy, who is so obnoxious that Michael Lewis will probably soon write a glowing book about him, is no doubt vying for the job of assessing the length of Trump’s ties after he’s sworn in. (“Perfect length, Mr. President — wearing ties so long that they fall below your knees is slimming!”)
No, it’s going to be up to the voters to come to their senses and push her forward. But her bipolar campaign will continue to hamper her — TradCons will continue to groan at her olive branches to Trump World, and Trump will continue to turn his followers against her. (His most recent attack was to call her a “birdbrain,” a term that gained momentum in the comic strips of the 1940s.)
Haley’s only hope is for old-school conservatives to follow in Will’s footsteps and apply the Haley Paradox: The more dishonest you think she is, the more palatable a candidate she becomes.
The half of GOP voters who want to oust Trump must believe she is being held hostage in a Republican primary that makes her say outlandish things, and hope that her history of sanity will come to the fore once she can go toe-to-toe against the former president. If you know that she cannot possibly believe her public utterances (because really, who could?), she almost starts to seem more presidential.
Plus, Haley, like any sensible conservative, has the ability to drive all the correct people on the left to insanity.
Haley has a lot of ground to make up on Trump and a very short amount of time to do so. “Vote for Nikki Haley, I guess” is not a particularly strong campaign vibe while heading into the 2024 primary contests. And thus, much as Nikki Haley has had to make moral compromises in an effort to oust Trump, anti-Trump Republicans will have to make moral compromises by supporting Nikki Haley.