Would Maine’s Democratic governor, Janet Mills, really make a strong challenger to GOP senator Susan Collins?

Today’s Morning Jolt focuses on another dramatic development in Maine, but elsewhere in the state, this morning’s Bangor Daily News reports, “By not making an explicit decision on running for the U.S. Senate, Gov. Janet Mills is causing several Democrats to hold off on deciding whether or not to challenge U.S. Sen. Susan Collins in 2026.”

Now, the first thing to remember is that polite, soft-spoken moderate Maine GOP Senator Susan Collins sits upon a throne of skulls of opponents who underestimated her. Every six years, some Democrat jumps into the Senate race, convinced that this is the year that the purplish state will send Collins packing. And every six years, Collins just crushes her opponent on Election Day. Her last reelection, in 2020, was perhaps her most amazing, as Democratic challenger Sara Gideon led every pre-election poll, sometimes by a lot; The Economist concluded Gideon had a 69 percent chance of winning. But in the end, it wasn’t even all that close. Collins won reelection, 51 percent to 42 percent. Every pollster in Maine deserves to get eaten by a monster from a Stephen King novel; keep this in mind when Maine Democrats talk about Collins not having a high job approval rating.

Collins is Maine’s longest-serving member of Congress. She chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee, about as powerful a perch as a senator can get. Collins has more than $5 million in cash on hand.

It’s not hard to see why Maine Democrats could talk themselves into believing Mills, who is term-limited, is the best option. She’s already been elected statewide twice, and the progressive grassroots will likely love her for her vocal, vehement opposition to President Trump and his administration. Yes, Trump’s approval rating in Maine is just 42 percent, according to the Morning Consult. Trump won one congressional district and one electoral vote in the state last year, with 45 percent of the vote statewide.

But Collins has already proven an ability to win reelection when her opponent was attempting to nationalize the Senate race and make it a referendum on Trump. As of 2020, her independence, attempts to preserve bipartisan cooperation, and deep family roots in the state proved to be much more valued by Maine voters than any pollster could measure. And electing Mills would represent Maine’s electorate declaring, “Hey, who needs a senator who’s chair of the Appropriations Committee? We don’t really care about federal spending.”

Finally, keep in mind that Collins is the younger candidate by about five years; Mills will turn 78 later this year.