Visitor numbers have fallen, which might tell us something about the uncertainty over impending tariff effects.

The latest inflation numbers are a clear sign that inflation, juiced by the early tariff bites, may be stirring, and the firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer appears to signal that the administration may be more concerned about the overall economy than (whatever it may say) the quality of its statistical data.

And then there’s Las Vegas. Visitor numbers there fell by 11.3 percent year-on-year in June, and that does not seem to have been one freak month. Visitors were down over 7 percent for the first six months of the year, which suggests something other than a change in consumer tastes. The Daily Telegraph notes that “in percentage terms, that is equivalent to the drop recorded over the entirety of the two-year period during the global recession.” In fact, adding to the gloom, Melissa Lawford, the author of the Telegraph’s report, relates that

there have only been three years when Las Vegas has seen visitor numbers drop by more than a million, or by more than 3pc, in a single year: the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, and the 2020 pandemic. . . .

Figures from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) show hotel occupancy was down by nearly a tenth year-on-year in June. As hotels cut prices, revenues per room fell by an even steeper 13.8pc.

Even the city’s biggest hotel brands are taking a hit. Caesars Entertainment, which runs nine properties in Las Vegas, including Caesars Palace, reported an 8pc drop in its Las Vegas earnings between April and June.

The number of international visitors is down (particularly those from the “51st state”), but, according to Lawford, they typically account for only 12 percent of the total. She quotes Steve Hill, chief executive of the LVCVA:

The reduction that we’ve seen is largely domestic, and at its core is a concern that consumers have about the economy, about their financial situation and their jobs.

According to Hill, the drop in the number of visitors has mainly been among lower spenders:

The core of the concern here is with folks who have to live on a budget. They need disposable income in order to be able to come.

And those that have turned up have been spending less.

Meanwhile:

Mike PeQueen, managing director at Hightower Las Vegas, a wealth management firm, says: “Las Vegas has a fair reputation as a canary in the coal mine for greater US discretionary spending.”

It would be wrong to blame this on the bite being taken by the Trump tariffs, most of which has yet to be felt, but when it comes to the indirect effects, specifically the uncertainty that has been created, the investments that may have been put on hold as a result and so on, well, that is a different matter.