If Harris wins, Iran may determine that it has time on its side. If Trump regains the White House, it may conclude that it has a limited window to act.
Iran is undeterred. Despite the decimation of its terrorist proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, the Islamic Republic remains unflinching in its resolve to attack the Jewish state directly.
In April, Iran attacked Israel directly with over 300 drones and missiles, only a handful of which penetrated Israeli airspace. Tehran reprised the attack in early October, sending 180 missiles raining down on Israeli targets. And yet, despite the relative success of that volley in striking its objectives, the attack produced only minor material damage on the ground and zero Israeli casualties. Israel responded proportionately to both attacks with calibrated assaults weeks after the original provocation — signals designed to communicate both Israel’s resolve to defend itself and its willingness to de-escalate the spiraling conflict. But Iran seems disinclined to take the off-ramp it has been offered.
Official Iranian media outlets are telegraphing Iran’s intention to respond aggressively to an October 26 Israeli retaliatory barrage that degraded Iran’s air defenses and took some of its key missile production facilities offline. “We have reviewed all scenarios, and a decision has been made regarding our response,” Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told reporters on Monday. “Our reaction against Israel’s aggression will be definitive and decisive.”
The statement follows a Sunday report in the Wall Street Journal indicating that Iran “is planning a complex response involving even more powerful warheads and other weapons”:
Iran has told Arab diplomats that its conventional army would be involved because it had lost four soldiers and a civilian in Israel’s attack, the Iranian and Arab officials said. Involving its regular army doesn’t mean its troops would be deployed but that the paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that normally deals with Israeli security matters wouldn’t act alone in this case.
The Journal notes that the Pentagon has dispatched “several B-52 Stratofortress bomber aircraft, tanker aircraft, and Navy destroyers to the Middle East,” and the Biden administration has signaled its willingness to deploy “American forces” in a joint response to “any retaliation” against a potential forthcoming Iranian attack on Israeli territory. But why wait?
If publicly available estimates of the damage Iran incurred as a result of Israel’s October 26 strikes are accurate, Iran has never been more vulnerable. Its radar and air-defense systems have been degraded substantially, and according to Business Insider, the damage to Iran’s missile-production facilities “is so significant that its ability to produce new ballistic missiles could be delayed for at least a few years.” While it has a substantial arsenal of rockets, drones, and ballistic missiles, it will still need to retain a considerable cache as a deterrent. If Iran is planning to up the ante and conduct another multipronged attack on Israeli targets — and Israeli intelligence is confident that such an attack is imminent — Jerusalem is well within its rights to interdict that event preemptively.
In the end, despite its warnings, Iran may not pull the trigger on a third missile barrage. Tehran is reportedly waiting with bated breath to see what fate America’s voting public has in store for them. “Iran doesn’t want to influence the U.S. election with its attack,” the Journal reported, citing Iranian sources, “adding the response would come after Tuesday’s voting but before a new president is inaugurated in January. Iran prefers Kamala Harris over Donald Trump, according to U.S. intelligence agencies.”
If Harris pulls an inside straight tonight, Iran may determine that it has time on its side. If, however, Trump is restored to the White House, the Islamic Republic could conclude that it has a limited window to act while the Biden administration can still dictate terms to the Israeli government, and it may risk more by waiting for the incoming Trump administration to get its bearings. Just in case you didn’t think the stakes of this election could be higher.
Regardless, Israel is not obliged to wait around for an inevitable attack. It should see to its interests promptly and without regard for the composition of the American administration.