One thing I was curious to see in the election results was wether Democrats saw any erosion in Jewish support over the Biden-Harris administration’s hostile treatment of Israel and the explosion of left-wing antisemitism in the past year.

The exit polling data, however, is a bit contradictory. CNN exits show Harris beating Trump among Jewish voters nationally 79-21, suggesting Republicans made little headway. Fox’s voter analysis, however, showed Democrats bleeding Jewish support — slipping to a historically bad 66-32. In New York, Fox finds Trump came within single digits of Harris among Jewish voters — 54-46.

So which one should we consider more accurate?

To be clear, early exit polls always get weighted against actual results as they come in, so they could still shift. That said, my sense is that Fox’s account is probably more accurate.

There’s no perfect way to know this, because Jews only make up around 2 percent of the population. However, there are areas in which Jews are heavily concentrated, and those areas saw a strong shift toward Trump.

Take Rockland County in New York, which has the highest concentration of Jews of any single county in U.S. In 2020, the county went for Biden by two points, but this time, Trump carried it by 12 points. This is pattern held in other counties with large Jewish populations, including Brooklyn and in New Jersey, Passaic County (a long-time Democratic stronghold that Trump flipped) and Ocean County (where Trump improved his already sizable margin).

It should be noted that these counties are heavily Orthodox, and more observant Jews tend to be more Republican. There were also other trends involved (for instance, the shift in the Hispanic vote no doubt would have been a factor in Brooklyn and Passaic). But it’s hard to see how Trump would have made major gains in those counties were it not for increased Jewish support, which would be more consistent with the Fox results.