In light of yesterday’s shameful and dangerous Oval Office episode, it’s important to step back and ask the fundamental question: Why should the United States want to help Ukraine?
Part of the reason is our historic moral commitment to support and advance the causes of democracy and self-determination around the world.
But the most important reason the U.S. should want to help Ukraine is to thwart Russian president Vladimir Putin’s project of reassembling the former Soviet Union.
Many commentators seem to be implicitly assuming that the United States has very little to lose if Russia rolls over Ukraine. This is wrong. If the U.S. walks away from Ukraine, then President Trump will have created a permission structure for Russia to invade other European nations and for China to move on Taiwan.
American citizens will be worse off if Russia is emboldened to invade the Baltic states. American citizens will be worse off China is emboldened to take Taiwan. American citizens will be worse off if NATO disintegrates.
Why? History is clear: The U.S. will eventually be pulled into major wars that start abroad.
And even absent America’s direct involvement in a foreign war, the United States’s economic fortunes are tied to global security, which fosters stability. Containing Russia’s territorial ambitions is important for peace in Europe. Peace in Europe is important because without it Americans will be less prosperous. We don’t support Ukraine (just) because it’s nice to be nice to other democracies. We support Ukraine because it is in our direct interest to do so.
Here’s an excerpt on the economic importance of security alliances, from a forthcoming article of mine (currently in press):
US alliances and forward military presence advance economic outcomes in several ways. They prevent conflict to which the US would be a party. By lowering the odds of US military involvement in a war, they advance the economic interests of American businesses and households. They also deter US adversaries from attacking US allies and deter US allies from instigating military conflict. In this way, security alliances and a strong global US military presence help prevent conflicts in other parts of the world that would negatively affect US economic activity.
The degree of economic integration across the world means that US businesses and households are exposed to economic risk from military and security disruptions abroad caused by conflict that does not directly involve America. War abroad can reduce the supply of commodities, increasing their global price. It can hurt US exporters by restricting market access. It can create a chilling effect on US business investment. It can disrupt trade flows and global supply chains, raising costs to US businesses and consumers. And as discussed above, it can increase shipping costs.
By reducing the risk of war and strengthening ties between nations, a strong US military — along with the strong international alliances that a strong US military enables — increases international flows of goods and capital, which boosts American workers’ productivity and wages and US businesses’ competitiveness.
Consider the magnitude of our economic ties with Europe, and the economic costs Americans would bear from further Russian aggression, which could destabilize European commerce:
Trade between the United States and the European Union represents around one-third of global economic output and 30 percent of global trade. Moreover, either the EU or the US is the largest trade and investment partner of nearly every other country in the world. Bilateral trade and investment between the EU and US supports 9.4 million jobs (and indirectly supports as many as 16 million jobs). For scale, the number of jobs supported by economic integration is larger than the number of people who live in Switzerland or Virginia.
European Union companies invest heavily in America. In 2022, they invested €2.7 trillion in the United States. These investments increase the stocks of technical knowledge and capital in the US, raising workers’ productivity. Workers that are more productive are more valuable to firms, which go on to compete more aggressively for them in competitive labor markets. This heightened competition puts upward pressure on workers’ wages, increasing household income and potentially increasing employment opportunities and economic output.
Examples from history also help to illustrate this point.
A strong US military helped to facilitate Japan’s rapid economic development after the Second World War. Today, Japan is one of America’s strongest economic partners. Japan is a major source of foreign investment in the US and holds more US Treasury securities than any other foreign nation. In 2023, US exports to Japan totaled $121 billion ($77 billion in goods, $44 billion in services). US imports totaled $184 billion, with goods accounting for the majority ($149 billion). In 2021, US-based affiliates of Japanese firms employed nearly one million US workers.
The United States’ forward military presence has been a major factor contributing to South Korea’s rapid economic development as well. Today, South Korea is one of the largest sources of foreign investment in the United States, with $77 billion of investment in 2023. And US entities find South Korea to be an attractive place to invest. In 2023, the US invested $36 billion in South Korea, which purchased $91 billion of US exports.
The United States would hurt Ukraine if we advance a resolution that is highly unfavorable to Ukraine. The United States would also hurt ourselves — our businesses, our households, our workers, our citizens.
Nothing that happened in the Oval Office yesterday changes the fundamental fact that the economic and security interests of the United States require containing Mr. Putin’s territorial ambitions. History would judge President Trump harshly if he abandons Ukraine — remembering him as a president who helped unleash war abroad and who reduced the long-term prosperity of the American people.
The question, of course, is whether the president can be made to understand this. Yesterday’s display should inspire pessimism. But this situation is still salvageable if President Zelensky and President Trump act quickly to repair the breach. It is in America’s interest that they do so.