Treating Ukraine in the way that Washington is now doing inevitably weakens the broader credibility of the American deterrent.
The latest move by the administration to “encourage” Ukraine to accept some sort of peace deal with its Russian invaders is a brutal and low blow.
The US has cut off intelligence sharing with Kyiv in a move that could seriously hamper the Ukrainian military’s ability to target Russian forces.
The ban on intelligence sharing also extended to Washington prohibiting America’s allies from sharing any Ukraine-related intelligence they have received from the U.S. with Kyiv.
The step follows the decision on Monday by Donald Trump’s administration to suspend military aid deliveries to Ukraine and comes after a dramatic breakdown in relations between the US president and Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy. US intelligence co-operation has been essential for Ukraine’s ability to identify and strike Russian military targets.
This has meant that Ukraine’s powerful American-made wheeled HIMARS rocket launchers are not getting the coordinates they need to hit Russian targets more than 40 miles away, cutting their maximum effective range by about a third.
On top of that, American intelligence has played an important part in Ukraine’s efforts to protect its cities from missile and drone attacks.
According to some officials, the ban on intelligence-sharing is temporary, and the information flow will resume once Trump is satisfied that Ukraine’s President Zelensky is serious about entering into peace negotiations, something that CIA Director John Ratcliffe has appeared to back up.
CNN:
CIA Director John Ratcliffe in an interview on Fox Business on Wednesday also suggested that the pause on intelligence sharing may soon be ended.
“You saw the response that President Zelensky put out,” Ratcliffe said, referring to recent statements from the Ukrainian president that the country was ready to negotiate. “So I think on the military front and the intelligence front, the pause that allowed that to happen, I think will go away.”
Let’s hope. Nevertheless, the extent to which the termination of this “pause” is contingent on Zelensky showing his willingness to talk gives Moscow a good reason to make such a demonstration of intent more difficult: Every day that Ukraine is deprived of U.S. intelligence support hands Moscow an extra advantage, particularly on the ground. Every mile Russia’s army can take now is, in all probability, a mile that it will not return to Kyiv in the event of a peace. It also would not be a surprise if the Russians made maintaining the ban on intelligence-sharing a condition of starting talks.
But even if the flow of intelligence is restored quickly, its absence will almost certainly have led to Ukrainian losses on the front and in its battered cities.
And for what?
Meanwhile other countries, perhaps some of those undecided between the U.S. and the Beijing/Moscow bloc, may watch this move and decide to lean a little closer to that nice, reliable Mr. Putin. And it’s not hard to see how actions such as this erode the confidence in the U.S. felt by other NATO allies, who must be wondering how much they can depend on the American guarantee still supposedly underwriting the mutual defense obligations contained in Article 5 of the NATO treaty. And if NATO allies ask that question, so will the alliance’s enemies. A deterrent must be credible to deter.
Treating Ukraine in the way that Washington is now doing inevitably weakens the broader credibility of the American deterrent — and not just in Europe — with possible consequences that no one — not least Americans — should want to see.