As John Fund reported on NR the other day, Nigel Farage, the former UKIP leader and the politician who, more than any other, is responsible for Brexit, has formally entered the fray ahead of Britain’s elections on July 4. He has become leader of the (to use an inadequate shorthand) populist-right Reform Party, which has been well-positioned to pick up the votes of the many, many disillusioned Conservatives but has been handicapped by an uncharismatic leader. That flaw has now been remedied.
Farage has many detractors as well as many fans (on the right, he has many more fans than detractors), but he is undoubtedly the most charismatic figure in British politics today. Boris? Uh, no. There is no busted flush more busted than Boris Johnson, an overrated vaudevillian who turned his talents to central planning (net zero), authoritarianism (net zero, lockdown, nanny statism), and neglecting immigration control.
It’s worth noting that Farage is also standing for the House of Commons. While Farage was for years a member of the EU Parliament, he has never made it to Westminster. This will be his eighth attempt, and he’s chosen a constituency (Clacton) that ought to be a good fit, although it won’t be a shoe-in. If he’s able to get elected there, that may be a vital bridgehead if there is to be the realignment of the British (more accurately, English) center-right that (as John explained) he is looking for. If he doesn’t get in, that may be that.
With the election still just under a month away, there is still plenty of time — unless the Farage-led Reform fizzles quickly — to discuss this topic at greater length in due course. For now, there are two things worth considering: The first is that, after a series of sins of omission and commission of quite staggering stupidity, the Conservative Party is in desperate trouble, having alienated much of its traditional support as well as the new northern, blue-collar (more inadequate shorthand, I fear) voters it won in its remarkable 2019 election triumph — a triumph that seems like a long, long time ago. That’s not going to change in the next few weeks. The damage that has been (self-) inflicted is too deep. It’s been clear for months or years now that the Tories have been looking at a historic defeat.
Their position is made even worse by the way that Britain’s first-past-the-post voting system works. To take a simple example, if in a given constituency a Conservative wins 30 percent of the vote, a Reform candidate secures 30 percent, and the Labour candidate takes 40 percent, the Labour candidate will become the MP, even though the combined right had a 60 percent share and the left 40 percent. This is not, of course, an unknown concept here in the U.S.
The obvious response is to say that, given the likelihood that a Labour government will not only be more extreme than advertised but that it will also likely be very effective at embedding its power, shouldn’t there be a Reform/Tory pact not to compete against each other in contested seats? The logical answer would normally be yes, but not if Reform wishes (as it does) to either replace the Tories altogether or, I suppose, carry out a reverse takeover.
But what if Reform starts overtaking the Tories in the polls? At that point, might it make sense for Reform to start thinking again about a pact? Yes. But surely this is academic — Reform is not going to overtake the Tories, are they?
Well, Matt Goodwin (who leans in Reform’s direction), reports on the first YouGov poll since Farage’s announcement. The poll
puts Labour on 40%, the Conservatives on 19%, Reform on 17%, the Lib Dems on 10%, and the Greens on 7%. This is Reform’s highest share to date.
And while YouGov is using a new and slightly tweaked methodology to keep its polling consistent with its more technical MRP polling, Reform’s support is up and the Tory party’s support is down irrespective of which method is used.
As the Liberal Democrats and Greens are parties of the Left, the Left is still easily ahead in the polls. That said, bearing first-past-the-post in mind, it’s interesting to see that Labour is “only” four percentage points ahead of a notional Conservative/Reform partnership. That’s interesting for obvious reasons but also because it shows that support for Labour is relatively shallow. When Tony Blair’s Labour Party won an enormous victory over the Conservatives in 1997, that reflected weariness with (or dislike for) the Conservatives and a wave of positive enthusiasm for “New” Labour. But in 2024 the vote for Labour is driven, above all, by dislike of the Tories, a dislike that is keenly shared by many Reform voters. Even Farage would struggle to persuade them to stand alongside Sunak’s shrunken army, whatever the theoretical electoral advantage.
Goodwin:
As I pointed out on X, standing down candidates to help existing Members of Parliament is simply endorsing the broken establishment. And endorsing the establishment makes no sense if you are an anti-establishment party.
There should be no deals at all, no taking the foot off the gas.
By instead standing candidates everywhere Reform is going to hit the Tories much harder and wider than anything Boris Johnson experienced in 2019.
If Farage and his party remain in the 15-20% range in the polls they’ll not only win one or two seats but will obliterate the Tory vote across the country.
They’ll finish second to Labour and/or the Lib Dems in dozens if not hundreds of seats —setting the stage for the next phase of their revolt in the 2024-2029 parliament.
For now, let’s see if that poll is an outlier. If it’s not, hang on to your hats.