Although Trump has backed off his wildest threats, the average U.S. tariff rate has already risen to 20.6 percent under his administration, the highest in over a century.

Much attention has been given to the “TACO” phenomenon, in which President Trump threatens wildly high tariffs on certain countries, then routinely backs off. However, as the New York Times notes today, many new tariffs actually have gone into effect at Trump’s direction. Over the past six months, the president “has steadily and dramatically raised U.S. tariffs, transforming global trade” in the process.

The Budget Lab at Yale updates its estimates of Trump’s second-term tariffs every few days — almost as often as he changes them. As of July 13, the average U.S. tariff rate on imported goods is now 20.6 percent, an increase of 18.2 points from before Trump took office. Even after import patterns shift in response to existing tariffs, the average effective rate will fall only to 19.7 percent, a 17.3 point increase, which is the highest since 1933.

Assuming that existing tariffs stay in effect for ten years, the Budget Lab projects that they will transfer nearly $3 trillion from American consumers and businesses to the federal government’s coffers. They increase consumer prices by 2.1 percent in the short run, costing the typical household almost $2,800 per year. Other delightful macro-effects of Trump’s tariffs, as estimated by Yale’s Budget Lab, are listed below:

Meanwhile, although an overall consumer price increase of 2.1 percent from the tariffs appears modest, the Budget Lab finds that certain consumer staples will see their prices rise by much more:

Remember, all of these effects are from the tariffs that are already in effect. Yet Trump has promised to impose far more and far worse taxes on trade. If and when they come into effect, the Budget Lab will have estimates for those as well. Worth keeping an eye on.

Various articles from other places describe how American trade policy is prompting the world to try and leave us isolated economically:

Here’s a small sample of articles describing the tariffs’ effects on American consumers:

A couple of pieces on the tariffs’ tangible impact on U.S. businesses:

Finally, a new study for the nearly two-thirds of Americans who are invested in the stock market:

When is that “golden age of America” supposed to begin, again?