One more thought on Trump’s tariffs: I’m seeing far more opposition to this action than has been usual since January 20th — even from those who typically defend Trump whatever he does. Why? My theory is that, in addition to their assessments of the policy per se, many of Trump’s critics suspect that he is making a terrible political mistake that, if not swiftly corrected, could imperil the rest of his agenda. Joe Biden’s economy was not good, and voters understood that. That, along with the open border, is the main reason they elected Donald Trump. Had Trump focused on the economy without making any peculiar or disruptive moves, he’d likely have had around a year before he, rather than Joe Biden, was blamed for the status quo — yes, even if there was a recession. But now? Well, now — even if it’s unfair, which it partly would be — a lot of people are going to associate any downturn with Trump’s decisions.

That is an extremely stupid choice on Trump’s part. For four years, I watched in astonishment as Joe Biden deliberately screwed up illegal immigration. “How,” I asked over and over again, “could he possibly be doing this when his most prominent detractor is Donald Trump?” It was political malpractice of the highest order, and that it continued for as long as it did reflected an ideological mania that proved that the White House was out of touch. Donald Trump could be on the verge of committing a similar error with inflation. The smart move would have been to come in and message relentlessly on the border and consumer prices, while pursuing the rest of his agenda in tandem. While his work at the border has been excellent, albeit more muted than I’d have expected, Trump hasn’t done this. Instead, he has given disproportionate attention to DOGE and Ukraine, and he has created several news cycles of attention with his chaotic and incomprehensible approach to tariffs. As of today, inflation is not gone, eggs remain very expensive, and the economic outlook seems shaky. There is probably still time for Trump to turn around his messaging, but, right now, he does not seem to have learned as much as he should have from Joe Biden’s many blunders.