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National Review
National Review
29 Apr 2025
Mark Antonio Wright


NextImg:The Corner: Trump’s 100 Days: Is Past Performance Indicative of Future Results?

I discovered today, to my amusement, that there’s an online clock that counts down to the end of Donald Trump’s presidency. Some people simply have too much time on their hands.

As of today, there are 1,361 days remaining (and, as of this writing, 21 hours, 5 minutes, and 42 seconds) in Trump’s second term. That means that, 100 days in, there’s still 93.16 percent of the road left before we arrive at January 20, 2029. We all need to pace ourselves.

I largely agree with the National Review editors that “what we’ve gotten from Trump so far is, not unexpectedly, a mixed bag.”

I also think that it’s not unreasonable to think that what we’ve seen over this 100 days is likely to reflect what we see over the next 100 days, and over the next 45 months. There will be some good Trump, and there will be some bad Trump.

The nation’s anti-woke “vibe shift” has been notable, if incomplete. Trump’s defeat of Kamala Harris’s candidacy and the shattering of her political coalition has seemed to break through to the general American popular culture, producing cultural artifacts that would have been unthinkable just a year or two ago.

On foreign policy and trade, I think Trump’s policies are unlikely to prove popular. I hope they will not prove disastrous, leaving America with few friends when we might need them most, such as in a confrontation with Communist China. But back home, I think it’s likely that Trump’s border policies will indeed prove enduringly popular, if less so over time as the memory of Joe Biden’s welcome mat for illegal immigration fades.

I’m quite doubtful that the Trump administration’s confrontations with the courts, its “Turn Everything Up to Eleven” aura, or Donald Trump’s comportment as president will be an asset to members of his party as the months turn into years, and Trump is no longer on the ballot.

What hangs over everything, of course, is “liberation day” and Trump’s personal association with and the championing of his tariff policy. If some combination of the normal economic headwinds at the present stage of the business cycle and the Trump tariffs contribute to bringing on a recession, inflation, or — worse — stagflation, I don’t see any way that Trump or his party can escape the political blame for it. The Democratic Party and its allies in the press will, of course, do everything in their power to turn the “Trump Recession” into Great Depression 2.0. Even armed with the bully pulpit and Truth Social, I don’t think Trump and his administration will be able to (now) blame a recession on Joe Biden, as they perhaps could have before liberation day.

I’ve always chuckled at the saying, beloved by financial advisers, that “past performance does not guarantee future results.” That’s of course true — and yet . . . it’s always prudent to carefully take past performance into account when trying to see past the end of one’s nose.

I predict that Trump’s presidency will continue on much as it has: with much controversy, some genuine victories, too many self-inflicted defeats, and a slow erosion of its popularity, especially if it’s accompanied by laggard economic results.

Whatever comes next, however, we must pace ourselves. There’s more than 93 percent of this most interesting American presidency still to come.