It would be hysterical to read this as a sign that Trump is dissatisfied with Vance.
There’s a lot of buzz about Donald Trump’s answer when Bret Baier asked him, “Do you view Vice President JD Vance as your successor, the Republican nominee in 2028?”
Trump’s immediate answer was a surprisingly emphatic “No,” but Trump continued, “but he’s very capable. I mean, I don’t think that it, you know, I think you have a lot of very capable people. So far, I think he’s doing a fantastic job. It’s too early, we’re just starting.”
Trump then refused to take Baier’s bait when he pressed Trump on the fact that Vance would likely be angling as soon as next year for an official blessing. What’s up?
Clearly, this is not the answer you’d prefer, if you’re JD Vance. You’d rather have Trump’s backing as early as possible, and you certainly wouldn’t enjoy the headlines of Trump’s emphatic “no.” Partly this is a function of how Trump talks: The politic thing is to skip the blunt “no” and just smoothly elide the question by noting how early it is to be doing that sort of thing. But Trump is Trump.
Vance is in a historically unusual situation as the new vice president to a term-limited president. Only one man, Martin Van Buren, has played that particular hand into getting the handoff directly into the presidency, and Van Buren began to emerge as the clear heir apparent to Andrew Jackson from early on in Jackson’s second term after Van Buren replaced John C. Calhoun as vice president, although without a public declaration from Jackson at that early stage. A good deal of the theory of the Vance pick was that he’d be the instant heir to the MAGA movement in the hopes of shutting the rest of the party out of mounting any sort of pivot back toward more traditional conservatism. A loyal heir is also important because of how many things Trump is doing that will take eight years.
Has Trump turned away from that theory? Not necessarily; at most, this is a signal that there are other things on Trump’s mind besides elevating his faction within the party. Trump is a people person, who thinks in terms of human interactions rather than ideas. He instinctually understands the dynamics of power, and he’s always willing to leverage those dynamics against friends and allies. He is, in the traditional sense, a lame duck (although not as much as he will be once the midterms are over), but he surely wants to put off as long as possible the day when he has to cede center stage. The instant that Trump formally declares Vance his heir, power begins to flow away from Trump and toward Vance. It’s not surprising that Trump would instinctually recoil from that. Moreover, there are few things that Trump relishes or uses to his advantage more than making other people dance for his favor. So long as there remains doubt about who Trump might bless next in his kingmaker role, more people (Vance included) will feel compelled to keep him satisfied. Given that one of Trump’s grievances from his first administration is the number of people (including his vice president) who sooner or later said no to him, he doubtless does not want to relinquish that carrot and stick. And rationally, he’s being prudent: Vance is just 40 years old, has been in public office only two years, and has changed his stances in a number of ways since he began to enter politics. A wait-and-see attitude toward his readiness to take the next step is sensible.
All that being said, it would be hysterical to read this as a sign that Trump is dissatisfied with Vance. Vance remains the likeliest standard-bearer for Trump’s faction in 2028, at least if this administration hasn’t totally imploded politically by then. Assuming Trump remains healthy and vigorous enough at 82 to anoint a successor, Vance is likely to get that nod. I’d be surprised if Trump didn’t end up making a preference clearly known in that contest, much as Jackson did not only in favor of Van Buren in 1836 but also, decisively, in favor of James K. Polk in 1844. But Trump is going to want Vance to wait for it and work for it.