Rich, looking at the polling analysis from Harry Enten, says that of course Trump could win a general election against Biden. I agree. I’ve always felt Trump’s chances in 2024 were being underrated. I also think the national polling showing that Trump can beat Biden undermines the argument, made by many of my friends, that the Republican base is suicidal. I think they genuinely believe that Trump is the biggest personality and therefore likely to be the most dynamic candidate the GOP can field. I think they also discount polls showing Trump behind. They faced such criticism in 2016 and believe that Trump’s victory proved the doubters and haters wrong.

But still, is Trump the best bet? I think you have to consider that he is now a painfully divisive figure for the Republican Party in states like Arizona and Georgia — two states Republicans really need to hold in 2024. We also have to consider that Joe Biden is just a much stronger candidate in the “Brexit states” like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania than Hillary Clinton ever was.

It’s absolutely possible Trump can win in 2024, and the numbers do show him to be in his strongest position ever as a general-election candidate. But I do think that if Republicans lose Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, people will look back and feel mighty foolish for talking up Trump’s chances. This is a foreseeable disaster.