It won’t be easy for the GOP nominee to deny the incumbent Minnesota governor an unprecedented third term despite Walz’s unimpressive approval numbers.
A few days ago, I joked that considering how critical former Vice President Kamala Harris is of Tim Walz in her campaign memoir, he could go with the reelection slogan, “Walz for Governor 2026: Even Kamala Harris Thinks He’s a Disappointment.”
Walz launched his reelection bid Friday. I don’t want to get any Republican’s hopes too high; Minnesota is a heavily Democratic state, and it will not be easy for the GOP nominee to deny Walz an unprecedented third term in the governor’s mansion.
But — you knew a “but” was coming, didn’t you? — Walz’s job approval rating is currently pretty meh:
Walz enjoyed net positive approval ratings in each of 18 previous KSTP/SurveyUSA polls, including a plus-19 mark three months ago, but that cushion has now vanished.
Our latest survey of registered voters found respondents were evenly split at 47 percent on whether they approve or disapprove of Walz’s job as governor. Another 6% said they had no opinion.
Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier notes this could be a warning sign that Walz might be facing his most competitive race yet.
“You can particularly see this in the survey where he is notably weak among political independents and also in his old home base of southern Minnesota,” Schier said. “Those are real problem areas for him.”
Walz has just 24 percent support in southern Minnesota and 41 percent support among independents across the state.
When asked whether Walz should seek a third term, a slim plurality said they don’t think he should run again: 43 percent said they would prefer to see a different DFL candidate in 2026, while 42 percent said he should run.
Now, the same poll found Walz leading in four different hypothetical head-to-head matchups. Physician and former State Senator Scott Jensen is running closest, with Walz at 46 percent and Jensen at 41 percent. Jensen ran in 2022, so his higher numbers may well reflect higher name recognition.
But it’s not just this poll. In late June, the Star Tribune/Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication Minnesota poll found that 50 percent disapproved of Walz’s performance as governor, 49 percent approved, and just 1 percent was unsure.
Walz will have the usual advantages of a Democrat, but he’s also going to be running against the sense that three terms is just too many, along with the fact that the Minnesota state government is a minefield of scandals that could have and should have been prevented or caught earlier.
Plus, you have to wonder if some Minnesota Democrats are starting to see Walz as damaged goods. In 2020, Joe Biden won Minnesota with 52.4 percent of the vote, beating Donald Trump by more than seven percentage points. In 2024, Harris won Minnesota with 50.92 percent of the vote, with her margin of victory over Trump being only about four percentage points. Adding Walz to the ticket did nothing to help Harris and it may well have hurt her. It is more than reasonable for Minnesota Democrats to start wondering, “Hey, who else do we have?”