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National Review
National Review
27 Jul 2023
Alexander Hughes


NextImg:The Corner: There Is Hope for Swing States Yet

A few of my colleagues here at National Review have recently pointed out the disorder of a few key state Republican parties. Fellow intern Scott Howard highlighted the financial woes of the Arizona and Minnesota Republicans, pointing out that “for the price of a new Xbox game, you, too, can own your own state party.” Jim Geraghty followed up with details on the chaos in the Colorado, Michigan, and Georgia state parties.

I don’t mean to detract from their commentary — they are right to point out the risks, financial and otherwise, of a Trumpist rejection of the parties’ traditional base of donors and operatives. These are also places where the GOP cannot afford to be sloppy if it intends to win governors’ mansions, state legislatures, and electoral votes in 2024.

But the financial situation in some of these states may not be quite as dire as it seems.

The Minnesota GOP indeed reported a measly $53.81 cash on hand and over $300,000 in debt in its June filing with the FEC. In its July filing last Thursday, that debt had increased to $360,000 — but it also raised almost $300,000 and had around $200,000 cash on hand. Similarly, the state campaign account reported a little over $8,000 on hand at the end of last year, but only after raising and spending $1.7 million over the course of the year. As party chairman David Hann pointed out, money does more for candidates when you spend it than when you keep it in the bank.

Despite the disorganization of the Michigan Republican Party, other groups are stepping up to mount a serious challenge to the state’s Democratic trifecta. According to their July filings, the Republican campaign committees for both the state house and senate outraised their Democratic counterparts. Democrats currently hold both chambers by two-seat majorities, so control over the legislature is still very much in play.

Cooler heads are also prevailing in Georgia. As Geraghty points out, the state party there has had mounting legal costs related to its efforts to challenge Trump’s 2020 loss in the state, leaving it insufficiently prepared for what promises to be a bruising fight in 2024. Fortunately, Governor Brian Kemp is preparing to work outside that system. His Georgians First Leadership Committee is successfully providing conservative donors dissatisfied with the party a way to remain engaged, having raised over $5 million in the first half of this year according to its state filings.

The state parties need to figure out how to navigate the differences between their establishment and populist wings, or both will fail. It would be preferable if the state parties remained disciplined, but their support is not necessary to run winning campaigns — in fact, that’s one of the core lessons employed by insurgent populists in the first place. Disaffected donors need not simply sit out the next election cycle.