As laid out in today’s Morning Jolt, the “reciprocal” tariffs announced by the Trump administration yesterday are considerably higher than whatever tariffs the other country imposes on us.  For example, the U.S. and Japan have a trade agreement, and Japan’s average applied tariff rate is one of the lowest in the world.

Simple average applied Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff for Japan, according to the WTO data, is as follows:

• All products — 4.3 percent
• Agriculture products — 15.5 percent
• Non-agriculture — 2.5 percent

Japan: Average industry sector MFN applied duties (selected industries)

That’s not me asserting that; that’s the U.S. Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration. If you want to dispute those figures, take it up with Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick.

Yesterday, Trump claimed that Japan imposes a 46 percent tariff on U.S. goods and announced he is imposing a 24 percent “reciprocal” tariff on Japan.

Last night, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went on Fox News Special Report and during the interview, urged other countries to sit back and take it. “My advice to every country right now is, do not retaliate. Sit back, take it in. Let’s see how it goes. Because if you retaliate, there will be escalation. If you don’t retaliate, this is the high-water mark.”

Why? Why would any country do that? Our so-called“reciprocal” tariffs are higher than their existing tariffs. If we find an unlevel playing field so objectionable, why would we expect them to accept a playing field tilted against them?

How do you think foreign populations – particularly in countries in longstanding U.S. allies – are going to respond to the U.S. enacting sweeping high tariffs on goods they want to sell in this country? You think they’re going to just shrug and say, “okie-dokie“?

Also in that interview with Bret Baier, Bessent also said regarding the absence of any new tariffs on certain countries, “Russia and Belarus, we don’t trade with.”

Not true, at least as of 2024, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative:

U.S. goods exports to Russia in 2024 were $526.1 million, down 12.3 percent ($73.5 million) from 2023. U.S. goods imports from Russia totaled $3.0 billion in 2024, down 34.2 percent ($1.6 billion) from 2023.

That’s considerably less than it used to be, but $3 billion in imports from Russia is not nothing.

The OUSTR doesn’t have numbers for Belarus for 2024, but in 2023, the U.S. exported $16 million in goods and imported almost $50 million.

Maybe the numbers for 2025 so far are even lower.