Two old-school GOP incumbents, John Cornyn and Bill Cassidy, are raising big money to fend off Trumpy primary challengers next year.
With the coming departures of Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) and Thom Tillis (R., N.C.) from the Senate, it might seem like the Republican old guard is falling away. Those in Congress who resisted President Trump have been gradually replaced, over the last decade, with fresher, more Trump-friendly faces. To name a handful of “establishment” senators we’ve lost along the way: Bob Corker, Jeff Flake, Pat Toomey, Rob Portman, Ben Sasse, Mitt Romney, and Richard Burr.
But the fatal prognosis for the Senate’s GOP establishment may be premature. As FEC filings revealed this week, two Republican incumbents facing Trumpy primary challengers in their 2026 reelection campaigns hold large fundraising advantages. They are Senators Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and John Cornyn of Texas, both of whom are in the MAGA doghouse.
Cassidy is a rather inoffensive lawmaker elected in the Republican wave of 2014. There are many in the conference who are more conservative than he is, but many also who are more moderate. Cassidy’s real crime, in MAGA’s eyes, was to cast one of the seven Republican votes to convict Donald Trump in his second impeachment trial after January 6, 2021. Now, he is the only one of those members still remaining in the chamber not named Collins or Murkowski. He also refused to endorse Trump during the 2024 election and called for him to drop out of the race after being hit with numerous criminal charges.
Since last year’s election, Cassidy has tried to repent for his transgressions, including by voting to advance Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination for secretary of health and human services. Nevertheless, his effort to keep his ruby-red Louisiana seat in 2026 has drawn multiple primary challenges from Republicans who argue that Cassidy’s sins against Trump are unforgivable.
But Republican donors aren’t quite as upset with Cassidy as the MAGA faithful is. The former gave the senator’s reelection campaign $1.6 million last quarter. One of Cassidy’s challengers, State Senator Blake Miguez, raised $800,000. The primary’s other major candidate, Louisiana State Treasurer and former U.S. Representative John Fleming, brought in $121,000. Both Miguez and Fleming have featured Cassidy’s vote to convict Trump in their campaign announcements against him.
Another embattled MAGA target in the Senate is John Cornyn, who faces a serious challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in 2026. Compared to Cassidy, Cornyn’s offenses are more policy-related: his support for U.S. aid to Ukraine and the DREAM Act to grant legal status to DACA beneficiaries, as well as his role in crafting a 2022 gun control law after the elementary school shooting in Uvalde, Texas.
As of the most recent polling, Paxton holds a nearly 20-point lead over Cornyn in the primary. Previous polling suggested this lead was driven by “Trump movement” voters in the Lone Star State. Paxton faces credible allegations of corruption (for which he was impeached) and infidelity (his wife recently divorced him “on biblical grounds”), but it will still be quite a lift for Cornyn to catch up by the primary next March.
Yet Republican donors won’t let go of Cornyn, either. The incumbent senator outraised his primary challenger by $1 million last quarter — $3.9 million to Paxton’s $2.9 million — giving him a sizable cash advantage in the race. That may matter some to President Trump as he mulls over whom to endorse. Meanwhile, Democrats are eager for the chance to run against Paxton and his many controversies in the general election instead of Cornyn, whose reelection if nominated is virtually guaranteed.
The Republican establishment isn’t quite dead yet. Or, if it has died, the estate still has a whole lot of money to spend on its few remaining heirs.