The high school class of 2025 is the largest in American history, but it may hold the record forever. For at least the next 16 years, each subsequent graduating class will be smaller because of declining birth rates. This is an ominous sign of America’s impending population crisis.

An analysis by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education found that 2041 will have 388,000 fewer graduates than 2025, a 13 percent decrease. While some states, such as Florida, will see small class-size increases, 38 will have a reduction. The decline has already begun in the Midwest and the Northeast.

This downward slope will almost certainly continue beyond 2041. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. population will start waning in 2080 if current trends hold. In a lower-immigration scenario, the population could begin to decrease in fewer than 20 years. In either case, the U.S. will soon have fewer births than deaths and considerably more people over the age of 65 than under 18. 

As a result, we can expect labor shortages, economic instability, empty classrooms, and threats to America’s geopolitical position. In Japan, the combination of an aging population and low birth rates has strained the nation. Its population has been dwindling for more than a decade, and twice as many people died as were born last year. Japan is facing labor shortages in nearly every industry, a military failing to reach its recruitment goals, a collapsing marriage rate, and a culture in decline. It is a warning to the West.

While increased immigration could temporarily mask the problem, it is not a particularly effective solution, especially because immigrants already make up their highest proportion of the U.S. population in more than a century. The United States needs more babies and support for young families. Some recent proposals include child tax credits and federal funding for IVF, but they have major economic or moral drawbacks. Moreover, studies show that pronatalist public policy has had little effect on fertility rates in Europe and elsewhere.

This is not a problem that can simply be legislated away; a cultural shift that prioritizes raising children is necessary. But in a society where marriage rates are declining, the proportion of young people who plan to have kids is shrinking, and the number of church attendees is far too small, this will be incredibly difficult. While Gen Z’s moderate shift to the right brings some hope, it has not yet translated into permanent change. Barring a prolonged baby boom, the population collapse is imminent.