My latest column in the Daily Telegraph:

When Democrats beat Donald Trump in 2020, they were jubilant. The victory only grew sweeter when they won the Senate in the Georgia runoffs, watched Trump disgrace himself and his supporters in rejecting the 2020 election results, and won a battery of close races in 2022. It felt like a winning streak that would never end. Now, they may regret having won that election in 2020. It turns out that Democrats lost by winning in 2020. They may also have lost by doing well in 2022.

As much as observers of American politics obsess over the skill of candidates, the tactics of campaigns, and the realignment of demographic groups, the reality is that a huge amount of our politics is driven by powerful cyclical trends. Those trends tend to draw both sides back to an equilibrium in which the two parties take turns in power. It’s always better to take power when you’re prepared to hold onto it for a while.