Writing on the Corner on Friday, Charlie Cooke notes historically high levels of public support for a six-week abortion ban in a recent Wall Street Journal poll. Specifically, an April Wall Street Journal poll found that 41 percent of registered voters would support a six-week abortion ban. Cooke finds that numerous Gallup polls show far less public support for abortion limits before the first trimester. He says that is the polling data are correct, then the Dobbs decision has shifted the Overton window and public support for strong pro-life laws has significantly increased.

Cooke might be correct. However, there is also a strong possibility that relatively high levels of support for a six-week abortion ban in this Wall Street Journal poll might be due to question wording. There is relatively little polling data on six-week abortion bans. However, the polling data that are available provide evidence that public support for a six-week ban fluctuates with question wording — specifically, with what sort of exceptions such a ban might include.

The lowest level of public support came from a University of North Florida survey of registered Florida voters that was conducted between February and March 2023. It found that only 22 percent of Florida voters would support a six-week ban with “no exceptions for rape or incest.” A Wall Street Journal poll of August 2022 about a six-week abortion ban that included an exception for health of the mother but no exception for rape and incest fared somewhat better, garnering approximately 27 percent public support from registered voters. A Reuters/Ipsos poll of April 2023 that asked about a six-week ban and was silent on the matter of exceptions found that the ban received 35 percent support from the adults surveyed.

The April Wall Street Journal poll that Cooke references was different from the others. It was the only poll whose question about a six-week ban clearly included exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother. That might explain why this Wall Street Journal poll found more support for a six-week abortion ban than other recent polls.

Policy changes often have an impact on public policy. For instance, there is evidence that public support for legal abortion increased after the Supreme Court’s 1973 Roe v. Wade decision. However, much of the available polling data on specific abortion policies indicates that there has been little change in public attitudes on abortion following last summer’s Dobbs decision. That said, these recent polls on six-week abortion bans are useful to pro-lifers as we strive to develop messaging that will be useful in our efforts to enact strong pro-life laws in other states.