Jim Geraghty is undoubtedly correct that it’s a positive development that President Trump finally seems to be coming to the realization that Vladimir Putin isn’t “such a swell guy.”
Regarding Putin, Trump’s Truth Social post continued, “He is needlessly killing a lot of people, and I’m not just talking about soldiers. Missiles and drones are being shot into Cities in Ukraine, for no reason whatsoever.”
It’s good of Trump to notice this; the war is only in its fourth year. How can Trump possibly be very surprised that Putin’s forces are bombing civilians?
Of course, the more important realization for the policymakers in the Trump administration is for them to come to grips with the idea that Vladimir Putin and his Kremlin see the continuation of the war as fundamentally in their interest.
Most Europeans and most Americans — on the left and the right, both liberal Democrats and MAGA Republicans alike — seem to think that peace is in the U.S. interest and the Russian interest. The only thing standing in the way of peace, therefore, is some combination of ego, stubbornness, foolish American promises to Ukraine stemming from the Biden administration, and Ukrainian intransigence.
But as I wrote in April, “what’s interesting — and often ignored here in the U.S. — is that Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin doesn’t appear to agree with the Trump administration’s assumptions about what’s in Russia’s interest.”
Oh sure, the Russians would take a cease-fire if they needed one, or if they thought a temporary halt to hostilities would work to their advantage down the road, or if a negotiated deal gave them everything they wanted.
From a desire for the regime to save face, to a culling of demographic undesirables, to developing a military advantage, to the outside chance of a fracturing of the Western alliance, there are significant reasons that Putin’s Kremlin has decided to keep fighting.
Most important, “the Russians understand that the U.S. government’s policy toward the war since January 2025, and Donald Trump’s growing frustration, has brought into view the possibility that the war could end with Russia achieving something it was never able to across the eight decades of the Cold War and its aftermath: the withdrawal of the United States from European security commitments.”
The Trump administration is unlikely to get the best result from any peace negotiations until it groks that the most important reason that the Russians have continued their war in Ukraine is because the Russians want to continue waging their war in Ukraine.
So to repeat Jim’s query to President Trump: “The question is, what are you, as the leader of the United States, going to do about it?”