Very few political commentators have pointed out that in the entire period since Dobbs came down, not one pro-life senator or governor has lost a reelection campaign (which is why those of us who have made the point have made it obsessively). David Leonhardt of the New York Times stands out as one of the few with no connection to the conservative press who have been skeptical of the Democrats’ political assumptions on this issue.

His latest analysis in the Times is quite good. As he notes, there was reason for skepticism even in 2022.

It was hard to find a single election where abortion seemed decisive. Although it might have helped flip a few House elections, the Democrats who won hadn’t emphasized the issue more than those who had lost. And not a single incumbent Republican governor or senator lost in 2022, despite attempts by Democratic candidates to focus on the issue. . . .

The most reasonable conclusion seemed to be that abortion had played a modest role in the midterms. If anything, it would probably play an even smaller role in 2024. Polls showed that the people who cared most about the issue tended to be highly educated, politically engaged Democrats. That’s a very different group from swing voters in presidential elections.