Following a trouncing of Wisconsin conservatism by a resurgent Dairyland Left in the state supreme court race this spring (55.5 percent to 44.5 percent), it comes as no surprise that Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin has chosen this moment to announce her 2024 reelection bid. The Right is in internecine turmoil, while the Dems have won seven of nine statewide elections here in the Trump and post-Trump eras.

While personally unassuming, Baldwin is an electoral force. Forgettable in her appearances in blue-collar industrial towns like Sheboygan or Manitowoc, Baldwin was conversely brilliant in front of the overeducated denizens of Madison a day before the 2022 election, as she stumped for Senate candidate Mandela Barnes and Governor Tony Evers. Seeing her there, in the element of six-figure-salary attendees, Teamster statuary, and activist garlands, it was possible to understand why the Left loves her and suburban women lean her way. Tammy Baldwin looks like Deb from church but hits on everything the Left loves: She’s a pro-abortion gay woman who avoids ticking off enough moderates to endanger her nationally vital seat.

Baldwin has never lost an election, dating back to 1992 when she first ran for Wisconsin’s assembly seat 78. Since then, she’s moved from the state assembly to the U.S. House of Representatives to the U.S. Senate — victorious every time. That said, as a senator, she’s had the good fortune to run alongside Barack Obama in 2012 and against Trump in 2018.

But given the shift in the Wisconsin Democrats’ demographics, she’ll likely be just as successful in 2024. As Milwaukee becomes fickle, its support for Dems waxing and waning (plus or minus 100,000 votes depending on the year), Baldwin’s hometown of Madison and the greater Dane County have shifted leftward by ratio while maintaining steady turnout in absolute numbers no matter the size of the race.

Looking at the Republican bench, the only viable Senate candidate seems to be Representative Mike Gallagher — chair of the House’s China committee and a well-liked guy in the demographically diverse Green Bay area. But with the uncertainty at the top of the Republican ticket, there’s reason to think he and other possibilities — Representative Tom Tiffany, for one — may cede the field to weaker candidates such as former Milwaukee County sheriff David Clarke, businessman Scott Mayer, or former Senate candidate Eric Hovde. If that’s the case, it’ll be an electoral abattoir. Baldwin will give the best Republicans a real run — maybe beating all comers, no matter what. She’s not losing to bench players during a presidential election year, especially not as an incumbent.

The national GOP needs to know early what face it will show — Trump, or no. Only then can state parties make plans for either keeping their best for next time or giving the Dems their best shot in eight years.