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National Review
National Review
16 Apr 2024
Audrey Fahlberg


NextImg:The Corner: Speaker Mike Johnson’s Next Challenge

House Speaker Mike Johnson is hoping he’s figured out how to push through a nearly $100 billion of foreign aid through the lower chamber by the end of the week.

Johnson, whose speakership is hanging by a thread, told the House GOP conference during a closed-door conference Monday evening that he will push forward separate bills to fund Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan to work around the Senate-passed $95 billion supplemental, which has faced roadblocks in his House GOP conference over its funding provisions for Ukraine. He also plans to push through a fourth bill, which he says will include legislative language on forcing the sale of TikTok, offsetting Ukraine funding by seizing Russian assets, and turning some of the Ukraine funding into loans.

The idea, it seems, is for leadership to merge whatever passes into a single national-security package that will then head to the Senate for another vote. To do that, the House would need to pass a rule tying the package together — likely with Democratic support.

President Joe Biden, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have all urged Johnson to push through the Senate-passed supplemental as written. But Johnson, who has long pledged to pass Ukraine funding and now faces immense pressure to pass Israel aid after Iran’s weekend attack, has insisted that the Senate’s package has no chance of passing his fractious and slim GOP majority. To appease on-the-fence House GOP members, the speaker has said he will allow an open amendment process on the bill text.

Last night, some rank-and-file Republicans seemed cautiously optimistic the plan will work, even though some of the package’s components may rely on Democratic support to pass. “This gives us the opportunity to vote on each bill rather than trying to do what the Senate does and force everything into one massive bill where you may only support one part of it, but to get that through, you have to vote for the other parts that you don’t like,” Representative Zach Nunn (R., Iowa) said in a brief interview with NR Monday evening after leaving the closed-door House GOP conference meeting. “Now, we have the opportunity to vote specifically on each portion.”

But the strategy is already hitting some roadblocks. Hours before Johnson even announced his foreign-aid package plan at last night’s 5:30 p.m. conference meeting, the House Freedom Caucus released a statement opposing “using the emergency situation in Israel as a bogus justification to ram through Ukraine aid with no offset and no security for our own wide-open borders.” Representative Matt Gaetz (R., Fla.), the architect of Kevin McCarthy’s ouster, has said he wants to pair the package with H.R. 2, the House GOP’s staunch border bill that Democrats vehemently oppose.

And just this morning, Representative Thomas Massie (R., Ky.) told Johnson that he is cosponsoring Greene’s motion to vacate the speaker, which she filed last month but has yet to force a vote on:

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The stakes are high for the speaker, though it’s far from clear that there’s an appetite to depose him that extends beyond Massie and Greene. Remember: House Republicans are still haunted by the ghost of ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, whom eight House Republicans and a united House Democratic caucus ousted back in October. That decision ushered in a treacherous three-week vacancy during which the House GOP cycled through a cast of powerful Republican candidates before eventually rallying around the low-profile Louisianan as McCarthy’s dark-horse successor.

Electorally speaking, booting another speaker just six months into his tenure isn’t exactly a winning message for House Republicans. Not that bad headlines are a top concern for a member like Greene, who represents a deep-red Georgia district and has little to lose politically by following through on her threat to force a snap vote on Johnson.

Moral of the story? Johnson’s seen better days.

“I am not resigning, and it is, in my view, an absurd notion that someone would bring a vacate motion when we are simply here trying to do our jobs,” Johnson said during a Tuesday morning press conference.

To underscore how frank closed-door conversations about Johnson’s political future have become in recent days, some House Republican defense hawks told the speaker privately last week that if he’s ousted by the House GOP’s rightmost flank for championing Ukraine aid, he’d be going down for the right reasons and history books will remember him favorably.