South Africa has largely evaded consequences from Washington, which grants the country preferential trade treatment. That might soon change.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s announcement that he is boycotting the upcoming G-20 Summit in Johannesburg is, at first glance, primarily about a new law that South Africa’s government enacted last month to enable the expropriation of private land without compensation. President Trump posted about it on Truth Social, calling the land confiscation law a “massive human rights VIOLATION,” a sentiment that Rubio echoed yesterday in his announcement of the G-20 snub.

Rubio also panned the summit for adopting a theme that advances left-wing DEI and climate priorities and wrote: “My job is to advance America’s national interests, not waste taxpayer money or coddle anti-Americanism.”

While Rubio’s emphasis on the expropriation scheme is attracting the most attention, it’s plausible that the “anti-Americanism” to which he referred is also meant to put South Africa on notice for its worrying diplomatic trajectory. Long a member of the BRICS economic grouping with America’s foes, Pretoria is barreling toward an open alignment with the anti-U.S. entente.

Consider South Africa’s conduct after October 7. Minister of international relations Ronald Lamola traveled to Tehran this past summer for the inauguration of Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian. Pretoria has also led the international campaign to ostracize Israel after October 7, leading the lawsuit against the staunch U.S. ally at the International Court of Justice.

Under President Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa has also deepened its already-robust diplomatic relationship with Beijing. One event that has gone largely overlooked in the flurry of Trump-related news in recent weeks is that Pretoria ordered the Taiwanese diplomatic office in South Africa to leave by the end of March — a move drew criticism from Senators Ted Cruz and Marsha Blackburn. Even more worryingly, the country has built up its military ties with China and Russia, hosting naval exercises with them in 2023. The same year, when Reuben Brigety, the U.S. ambassador in South Africa under the Biden administration, caused a diplomatic blowup when he accused South Africa of letting a Russian warship dock near Johannesburg. The Biden administration never retracted Brigety’s claims, and the State Department later told me that the president has full confidence in him, despite some initial waffling. But the Biden team also declined to make a public issue of the alleged incident, apparently preferring to keep any discussions about it to private diplomatic channels.

The bottom line is that South Africa has largely evaded consequences from Washington, which grants the country preferential trade treatment under the African Growth and Opportunity Act. That might soon change.