All the available evidence points to Trump winning Iowa. In fact, if he lost, it would be the greatest upset in a primary contest with such extensive polling ever. But there’s usually something that surprises you in Iowa on caucus night. In fact, the last two winners in GOP races were trailing in the final polling. By relatively small margins, not 30 points, though. It’s still not crazy to imagine that, say, Trump ends up below 45 percent and perhaps looks a little less formidable than we thought, or Haley surges to 25 or above, or DeSantis shows some surprise resilience. There is a reason voters actually caucus and vote.