It’s hard to see Trump losing New Hampshire if he wins Iowa, but this poll, at least in theory, shows that the primary could be competitive.

If Nikki Haley could consolidate the non-MAGA vote (hers, Chris Christie’s, and Doug Burgum’s), she’d be within single digits of Trump. Of course, it’s never so simple — even if Christie and Burgum drop out, not all their support would automatically go to Haley. And she’d probably need to chip away at DeSantis and Ramaswamy without either collapsing, since they are attracting MAGA voters who would otherwise go to Trump. So, this poll is best for Trump, but you can look at it and think that maybe, maybe there’s a chance.