Who knows what Trump is really thinking, but I’ve thought Rubio was the strongest pick — assuming they can find a way around the Florida thing — because he might help solidify the change happening among Latino voters and is an energetic and likable campaigner. But in terms of the electoral map, Trump is looking so strong in Arizona and Nevada, it may be that he should be looking for potential help elsewhere, especially with Biden so dependent on the Blue Wall states and holding up in them better given his strength among older white voters.

So, yes, it may be that Trump needs an old white guy on the ticket!

The pro-J. D. Vance forces are going to argue that Vance has Rust Belt appeal, so he could help in the Blue Walls. Tim Scott might be able to help by taking some of the edge off the Democratic advantage in the cities in the Blue Wall states.

An entirely different model would be picking Glenn Youngkin to make a play for Virginia. If all else stays the same, Trump doesn’t need any of the Blue Walls if he wins Georgia, Arizona, and Virginia. But this would be a risky bet compared to winning back states that he won in 2016 and only narrowly lost in 2020.