A Public Opinion Strategies poll commissioned on behalf of the Senate-GOP leadership aligned group One Nation found widespread support among likely voters for immediately reopening the federal government first before Congress negotiates a deal to extend enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits that are set to expire at the end of the year, according to a polling memo shared with National Review.

Senate Battleground Shutdown Memo

The poll was conducted October 8 through 12 in in six states that Senate Republicans are trying to flip or keep red in 2026 — Georgia, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, Ohio, and North Carolina. According to the poll, 60 percent of survey respondents support “keeping the federal government open is too important. The government should be re-opened immediately and then Congress can move on to negotiating on extending the health care tax credits,” whereas only 35 percent of respondents say the federal government should remain shut down “until certain health care tax credits are extended.”

White House officials and congressional Republicans have long said that they are open to negotiating a deal to extend the expiring Obamacare tax credits, but not during a shutdown. Congressional Democrats, meanwhile, believe that they have the best negotiating leverage on a potential deal to extend the subsidies — which were both created and temporarily extended by Democrats — only if they continue to withhold their votes for a stopgap funding bill.

Republicans continue to insist that the polling is on their side. “Americans across key states support Republicans’ plan to re-open the government immediately, but the arsonist Democrats are obsessed with keeping the government shut down, blackmailing the American people, and catering to their extreme base to protect an impotent Chuck Schumer,” One Nation executive director Alex Latcham said in a statement.