Politico’s senior politics editor Charles Mahtesian published a bewildering piece this morning about Ron DeSantis’s chances of winning the presidency. His argument begins with a historical truth: Florida has yet to send one of its own to the presidency. While true as a matter of fact, there is nothing profound about it, because every state was like this at some point (though Virginia checked that box early on). Mahtesian makes a point of noting that Florida is the only state top ten in population not to have produced a president; Florida only reached the top ten in 1960. Before 1949, it stood outside the top 20. For comparison, the other states ranked top ten in population today have been in the top 20 consecutively since 1910, and four of them – Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, and Illinois – were the top four states for population from 1860–1940. Two of them, New York and Pennsylvania, had been top five for their entire existence as states until Pennsylvania fell to six in 2000. If there is a historical determinism argument to be made about DeSantis, it is that Florida is due to produce a president sooner rather than later. 

A far more absurd assertion comes later in the piece, however. After recounting the history of past Floridian presidential candidates, Mahtesian offers up this wisdom: 

But DeSantis is still running against Florida’s reputation as a gun-shaped anti-paradise of grifters, rejects and assorted weirdos that — fairly earned or not — just won’t die.

Further down the page, he continues: 

But above all, [Florida] is a place where people go to escape, to play (and misbehave). And that deliberate unseriousness has, like it or not, settled upon its politicians who don’t get the same respect as those from states whose identities are built around more traditional industries.

By whose account? Certainly not Mahtesian’s. The former candidates he discusses are Reubin Askew, Claude Kirk, Bob Graham, Jeb Bush, and Marco Rubio. Of these, only one (Claude Kirk) has a plausible claim to the ‘Florida man’ meme that Mahtesian asserts will hurt DeSantis. Three of the other candidates were well-respected governors and one is current U.S. Senator. All four were or are serious politicians, and none of their campaigns floundered because of some aura of “deliberate unseriousness.” Askew’s candidacy failed because his (relative) social conservatism didn’t connect with Democratic base voters in New Hampshire. Bob Graham’s launch floundered due to heart surgery. Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio were both sideswiped by Donald Trump, a far more cartoonish, Florida Man–like figure than anything Florida itself has produced. There is little proof that voters held the Florida Man stereotype against these candidates. To suggest that they will do so against DeSantis, a serious, disciplined politician who won reelection by 19 points and just wrapped up an overwhelmingly productive legislative session, is fantastical.

Ron DeSantis will face numerous challenges on his prospective run for the presidency. The rigors of the campaign trail are strenuous, and the dogfight with Donald Trump will be fierce. However, when these two Florida men fight, it will look nothing like this, and voters will not imagine it so.