Just adding a note to Charlie’s “I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!” comments from yesterday… back on March 30, Florida governor Ron DeSantis was at 30 percent in the RealClearPolitics average of national polling, about 16 percentage points behind Donald Trump. This morning, DeSantis is at 13.6 percent in that average, almost 50 percentage points behind Trump.
Now, I’d be the first to say that DeSantis has run a flawed campaign. He’s tried to be a little bit like Trump, and a little bit different from Trump, and that six-of-one, half-dozen-of-the-other branding has resulted in DeSantis getting the worst of both worlds – Trump fans won’t give him a chance, while Republican critics of Trump are increasingly embracing Nikki Haley. Our Noah Rothman likely has a point when he argues, “if anti-Trump Republicans aren’t gravitating to his camp, it’s only because they know where they are not wanted.”
The attempted opening campaign announcement with Elon Musk on Twitter Spaces bombed and most of the early messaging was way too online. It’s hard to keep track of how many “resets” his campaign had, and apparently the DeSantis team is beset by infighting. His campaign and political action committee have run more than $46 million in television, digital and radio ads… and boy, they do not have a lot to show for it.
But has DeSantis really run such a terrible campaign that anywhere from half to two-thirds of the people who were supporting him in March had good reason to jump off the bandwagon? If you were a past supporter of DeSantis, has anything happened in the past six months or so that have dramatically changed how you feel about the guy? Have any of DeSantis’ debate performances been that bad? Any gaffes or moments that have made you say, “oh, goodness, this man is not prepared to be the next commander-in-chief?”
In the end, DeSantis is pretty much the same guy as he was at the beginning of the year – the same accomplishments as governor and the same demonstrated ability to win by a landslide in what used to be a swing state. If DeSantis is uncharismatic, he’s not much more or less uncharismatic than he was in March. It’s the same worldview and governing philosophy as DeSantis had in spring.
Even with his stumbles, it doesn’t feel like DeSantis has run a campaign so hapless that it warrants half to two-thirds of his support disappearing within a span of eight months. And yet, here we are, with the Florida governor’s support in single digits in some national polls.
Maybe tonight’s debate with Gavin Newsom will turn some heads or get some Republican primary voters to give the Florida governor a second look, but I wouldn’t count on it.
It feels like DeSantis went before the Republican primary electorate and said, “hey, I may not be the most lively and charismatic personality, but I can deliver you some things you’ve been forced to do without for a long time: consistent conservative philosophy, competence in governing and an attention to the details of policy.”
And the Republican primary electorate listened to that offer and said, “nah, we’ll pass. We’ve got a guy who already lost to Joe Biden, now facing four criminal indictments, and we’re feeling really good about his odds!”