The Dunkelflaute or, for the scientifically inclined, anti-cyclonic gloom, continues to undermine the case for renewables. These two faintly exotic words describe a weather pattern during which there is not a lot of sun and not a lot of wind. Amazingly, it happens quite a bit in Northern Europe at this time of year.
Somehow I think the writers at Doomberg are not amazed:
In the least surprising development of 2024, the wind stopped blowing across Europe for an extended period in mid-December. Further research reveals that solar intensity is likewise reduced in the Northern Hemisphere during the winter months, especially at night.
It gets dark at night? It gets darker in the winter? Night falls earlier in the winter?
The things you learn.
One of the reasons that European energy consumers have been told not to worry too much about the unreliability arising out of wind and solar’s reliance on (checks notes) the weather (no, the 21st century is not quite what I thought it would be) is the network of interconnectors (high-voltage land or undersea cables) connecting the continent’s grids. Parts of Europe where the wind was blowing, the sun was shining, or other more conventional power stations were doing what they were meant to do would make up for any shortfall in one country or countries by supplying some of their electricity to make up the difference.
But what happens to electricity prices in those supplier countries if too much of their electricity is siphoned off?
Answer: They go up, another shocking discovery.
Over (courtesy of Doomberg) to the Financial Times (from December 12):
Norway’s two governing parties want to scrap an electricity interconnector to Denmark, with the junior coalition partner also calling for a renegotiation of power links to the UK and Germany, as sky-high prices trigger panic in the rich Nordic country.
A lack of wind in Germany and the North Sea will push electricity prices in southern Norway to NKr13.16 ($1.18) per kilowatt hour on Thursday afternoon, their highest level since 2009 and almost 20 times their level just last week.
I suspect/hope that the FT writer meant “energy rich.” “Rich” by itself seems a little judgmental, although Norway is indeed rich (thank you, hydrocarbons!).
Norway’s energy minister was not happy with this situation. Indeed, he described it as, well, excremental. His center-left party, Labour, wants to switch off the interconnectors with Denmark when the contracts come up to renewal in 2026. Labour’s junior coalition partner, the Center Party, also wants to renegotiate the interconnector deals Norway has with the U.K. and Germany.
The interconnectors are taking the blame for the current high Norwegian prices, with critics arguing Norway should only send electricity from its abundant hydropower abroad after it has ensured low prices at home, as was the case for decades previously.
The issue is also causing deep alarm among EU countries keen to use Norway’s abundant hydroelectric power to help balance energy prices on the continent.
That alarm may be increased (if anyone is paying attention) by forecasts that climate change may cause a reduction in wind speeds, so-called “global stilling.” To repeat what I posted the other day, this idea was summarized a year or so ago by Frank Jacobs in The Big Think :
Unfortunately for Europe, it doesn’t seem that last year’s “wind drought” was a one-off. In its latest report, the IPCC predicts a drop of 6 percent to 8 percent in average wind speeds across Europe by 2050. As wind speeds become increasingly inconstant, the cost of wind energy will become more unpredictable and its provision more unreliable. . . .
Now it’s possible to argue that the IPCC (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has got things wrong, but that’s not something that governments spending billions on the basis of the IPCC’s forecasts can do. They cannot shrug off the warnings about global stilling even if they wanted to, and that increases the pressure on the EU (and its sad British clone) to bring the Norwegians into line (and it increases the pressure on Norway to ignore them). Arguments that renewables (in this case, mainly wind) are reliable depends on the ability to demonstrate that there is backup when the wind and/or sun are not delivering power. Interconnectors are part of the backup, but how reliable are they?
Could it be that the EU is learning yet another shocking lesson, that countries put their own interests first?
No worries. Threats are being made.
The Financial Times:
“This is a crunch moment for EU-Norway relations. Reducing power connections to Europe will not be well received,” one EU ambassador in Oslo said.
Scores of regulations will doubtless be fired at those wicked Norwegians by the regulatory superpower. But before Brussels shoots them off, there is a complication.
The Financial Times:
Norway is also western Europe’s largest petroleum producer and has replaced Russia for many EU countries as their biggest supplier of gas.
Oh.
The sharp increase in electricity prices in Norway in recent winters has angered voters there. According to the FT, the right/center-right opposition, which is led by the Progress Party, is way ahead in the polls. Progress also wants to scrap the connection with Denmark and, the FT reports, “to reform the deals with the UK and Germany to reduce ‘the price infection’ to Norway from the continent.”
Sounds like the reliability of renewables is susceptible to “infection.”
It’s probably unkind to point out that Denmark, more than any other country, has pioneered wind energy. And yet it is still vulnerable to the kindness of strangers. Strange that.