In 2022, the U.S. Census Bureau conceded that it undercounted population in 5 red states and 1 blue state, while overcounting in 6 blue states, and 2 red ones.

It would be better if we didn’t have any mid-decade restricting efforts to squeeze a bit more partisan advantage. But Republicans have a fair gripe that Census Bureau errors in the 2020 count likely cost them at least a handful of seats.

Back in 2022 – during the Biden administration – the U.S. Census Bureau published the results from its 2020 “Post-Enumeration Survey,” showing population undercounts and overcounts by state. After the bureau finished the official census, it canvassed a large sampling of households across the country and then compared their answers to the actual responses from those households in the original 2020 Census.

The bureau is quick to point out that “these statistical products cannot be used to change the final census count but are useful in assessing the current census, determining how best to estimate the population between now and 2030, and helping to improve future censuses.” The bureau also emphasized that the post-enumeration survey indicated that “state and national level estimates indicate that the 2020 Census data are fit for use in apportionment, redistricting, and a wide range of other purposes.”

But you’re a sharp enough person to notice a pattern.

Six states had undercounts: Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Mississippi, Tennessee and Texas. In other words, five red states and one blue state.

Eight states had overcounts: Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Utah – six blue states, and two red ones.

So the population in a bunch of red states got undercounted, and a bunch of blue states had their population overcounted.

Hans von Spakovsky of the Heritage Foundation ran the numbers and argues that two Republican-leaning states were denied new House seats they deserved, two Democratic-leaning states should have lost a seat but didn’t, and fairly blue-ish Colorado gained a seat that it didn’t deserve under the revised numbers.

If the overcount and undercount errors had not occurred, then Florida would have received two more seats beyond the additional seat it received. Texas would have one more representative in Congress in addition to the two new seats it received. Moreover, Minnesota and Rhode Island each would have lost a congressional seat, which they retained because of the mistakes in the original census count. Colorado, which gained a new congressional seat under the original count, would not have received this additional seat.

So, are Republicans making a naked power grab to redraw district lines, halfway through a decade? Yeah. But they probably got screwed out of at least two more seats in Florida and Texas and Democrats got to keep two more seats in Minnesota and Rhode Island. The Republicans have a plausible argument that they’re attempting to rectify mistakes made by a federal agency that, while it technically has multiple duties… really had one job, which is count how many people are in each state.