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National Review
National Review
28 Feb 2024
Noah Rothman


NextImg:The Corner: Putting Michigan’s Primary Results through the Spin Cycle

Michigan held both its Democratic and Republican primaries on Tuesday night, and primary voters turned out in droves to ratify both Joe Biden and Donald Trump’s holds over their respective parties. That relatively straightforward narrative won’t satisfy those eager to hear these results spun in a direction that reinforces their outlook toward either of these two unpopular candidates. With that in mind, here is what you’re likely to hear from partisans with skin in this game over the next several days:

Pro-Biden: The protest vote was a flop. The organizers of the campaign behind the “uncommitted” line set expectations absurdly low — just 10 percent of the primary vote — but they still only barely outperformed their own goal. At 13 percent of the total, “uncommitted” only did about 2 percent better than it had when the objective was to embarrass Barack Obama in 2012, the last comparable election. In the end, that meager protest vote had no effect on Obama’s chances in the general election. He won Michigan by nearly 450,000 votes. And unlike the 2012 primaries, the high turnout in this otherwise uncompetitive race in which Biden received 618,000 votes suggests Democrats are more engaged than the dime-store punditry on cable news has thus far suggested. Indeed, in Wayne County — home to Dearborn and a number of loyal Democrats who are nonetheless uncomfortable with how Israel has conducted its war against Hamas — “uncommitted” secured only about 17 percent of the vote. For a cost-free exercise in blowing off steam, that’s weak sauce. The stakes in November will be much higher, and Democrats understand that. All these results show is that the Democratic Party is united behind Joe Biden, and its voters are highly motivated to beat Donald Trump in November.

Anti-Biden: The “uncommitted” campaign set out to win just 10,000 voters in Michigan — roughly the margin by which Hillary Clinton lost the state to Donald Trump in 2016. Last night, over ten times that number went to the polls to send Joe Biden a message: Change course or risk losing this state in November and, with it, the election. All told, almost 145,000 Democrats went to the polls to vote against a sitting president from their party. That doesn’t just eclipse the margin of Clinton’s loss in the state, it approaches Joe Biden’s margin of victory in 2020 (just over 154,000 votes). If that’s what an underfunded grassroots protest campaign can accomplish in a primary that had no right being competitive, imagine what Republicans can do to Biden’s vote share with a fully funded campaign apparatus? The president had better recognize the political peril he’s in while there’s still time.

Pro-Trump: Another state tells us what we already know: Republicans are devoted to their former president. Nikki Haley’s vanity campaign was a non-entity in Michigan, where she failed to win even a single county. Moreover, even though Republicans had no reason to expect this state would host a competitive primary, 1.1 million Republicans still turned out to the polls to show their overwhelming support for Trump. That level of turnout vastly exceeded what the Democrats put on the board last night, and that alone should send shivers down Democratic spines. Trump enjoys the prohibitive backing of the GOP’s voters, all of whom are chomping at the bit to eject Joe Biden from the White House regardless of who they voted for in this inconsequential primary. The primaries are over. The general election has begun. And Donald Trump is going to win it.

Anti-Trump: Some unity. Nikki Haley had no reason to expect a strong performance in Michigan, a state in which she barely campaigned and to which her organization committed few resources. And yet, when over 1 million Republicans went to the polls, fewer than 70 percent of them voted for Trump. Haley won more than a quarter of the primary vote — very nearly 300,000 Republicans — and their message is simple: We are done with Trump. And don’t give me any nonsense about “interlopers” — Democrats and independents artificially boosting Haley’s totals. With a competitive Democratic contest occurring at the same time and requirements that compelled voters to select specific ballots, the Michiganders who voted in last night’s GOP primary are either dedicated Republicans or potential Republican voters. If about 30 percent of them won’t cast their ballots for the former president in November, that’s a huge red flag for the GOP. Michigan’s results further confirm that Trump consistently (sometimes dramatically) underperforms his pre-election polling. If the party fails to heed the clear warnings voters are sending them, Republicans should expect that Trump will deliver yet another disappointing Election Night in November.

There is some truth to all these partisan gyrations. That’s what “spin” is — the selective curation of objective facts. But like all good attempts at spin, these narratives are so selective with the truths they are willing to acknowledge that they amount to an effort to mislead. Ultimately, all these messaging campaigns contribute to a conclusion Americans had already ascertained for themselves: Both parties are deeply committed to undesirable and unpopular general-election candidates. It will be up to the voters to determine in the fall which of these two unacceptable figures is marginally less off-putting.