No one in Michigan politics would be remotely fooled (or amused) by a carpetbagging careerist most associated in the minds of voters with Notre Dame University.
This morning Jim Geraghty wrote about how Senate Democrats are feeling blue in the misery of their minority, what with the retirements of several veteran senators from purplish states creating open seats the party now has to defend during the 2026 midterms. (Gary Peters of Michigan, Tina Smith of Minnesota, and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire have all announced their exit.) I don’t see it that way, and instead, take Dan McLaughlin’s view on the spate of purple state retirements: Democrats are getting out now because (1) they’re old and would like to retire; (2) the timing will never be better for them to safely hand their seats on to a new generation of Democrats.
It is a fairly ironclad law of American politics that midterm elections always favor the party out of power. (Only once in the past century have they not, and it took the September 11 attacks to make that happen.) Nothing in the early months of Trump’s second term has given me any reason to believe the pattern will be any different in 2026; anyone arguing otherwise, by definition, starts from the position of special pleading.
That brings us to the matter of Pete Buttigieg, who Jim dismissed cruelly — but appropriately — in half a sentence. We learn today that Buttigieg, the former small-town Indiana mayor and secretary of transportation, will not be running either for senator or governor of Michigan. The stated reason is that he prefers to focus on a presidential campaign in 2028 instead. The unstated reason why Buttigieg is declining a chance at the Michigan senate seat is that he is a politician from Indiana.
Yes, Buttigieg may have moved to Michigan midway through his service as secretary of transportation during the Biden administration, but nobody in Democratic state politics there is remotely fooled (or amused) by a carpetbagging careerist most associated in the minds of voters with Notre Dame University and obnoxious bike lanes. I’m genuinely sad Buttigieg decided not to hazard a Democratic primary because it would have been a delight to watch such a big “name” lose with a whimper; Michigan voters don’t like “glamour” politicians, and there are few politicians who feel less substantive and more artificially coiffed than Mayor Pete.
Which makes a presidential run his only play: Buttigieg is a man without a state or a natural constituency; only by playing to nationwide audiences (primarily media ones) can he hope to command even a modicum of attention. Remember when this man won the Iowa caucuses in 2020? Neither do I, which is why Iowa Democrats no longer bother with a caucus vote. Congrats, Pete — you managed to kill a beloved political tradition with your lone victory!
Running for the presidency may be a best possible play, but that doesn’t mean it’s a serious one. Buttigieg is a forgotten man and not a major candidate in 2028, which will be a massive scrum on the Democratic side. What is more interesting is that aside from one obvious candidate from each party — Governor Gavin Newsom of California and Vice-President Vance — I don’t yet know who is. (Given that Vance may fall out with Donald Trump before his term ends, perhaps his crown will pass to Marco Rubio or some other chancer in the Trump wing of the party.) Some candidates look intriguing right now, but potential on paper is very different from politics in practice. Just ask Mayor Pete, who spent his entire adult life looking perfect — on paper. The reality of it turned out to be even flimsier.