A pair of polls released this morning suggest opposition to Israel among Democrats has reached new heights and fueled the rise of New York socialist Zohran Mamdani, while, despite what you may think from the online discourse, Republican support for Israel has remained remarkably stable throughout the campaign against Hamas in Gaza.
A new poll from Gallup finds that just 12 percent of Democrats supported Israel’s military action against the Iranian nuclear program, only 9 percent have a favorable view of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and just 8 percent support Israel’s campaign against Hamas.
Meanwhile, at Semafor, Dave Weigel highlights a poll of New York City Democratic primary voters by the left-wing Data for Progress, which found radical anti-Israel positions taking hold. Among the findings was 63 percent support for Mamdani’s position to arrest Netanyahu were he to come to New York City. This suggests that the popular narrative that Mamdani won despite radical anti-Israel positions gets things completely backwards. In fact, it was his unapologetic opposition to Israel that fueled his rise.
On the other hand, while one might get the impression from podcasts and social media that there are cracks in traditional Republican support for Israel, that is not at all borne out by the numbers. Among Republicans, 67 percent have a favorable view of Netanyahu (the highest number recorded since Gallup started asking about him in 1999); support for Israel’s war against Hamas is at 71 percent (exactly the same as in the weeks after the Oct 7th massacres); and despite a spirited debate online, 78 percent backed Israeli action against Iran.
This suggests that the constant attacks on Israel being advanced by Tucker Carlson and his ideological allies have not really resonated with actual Republican voters. There has always been a contingent of Republicans who are ambivalent about U.S. support for Israel or outright opposed, as evidenced by the waves made by the likes of Pat Buchanan and Ron Paul in Republican primaries. But as of now, the overwhelming majority of Republicans are as committed to Israel as ever.