I’ve been pretty bullish on Trump getting some Ukraine deal done fairly early in his administration for some time now, and the wheels are starting to move.

From where I sit, there is no doubt that Hegseth is right that Ukraine is not realistically going to be a member of NATO and not realistically going to return to its pre-2014 borders as part of any settlement. I wish the latter weren’t the case, but when Ukraine couldn’t sweep Russia all the way back after the 2022 invasion sputtered, we were always looking at a sub-optimal outcome.

There’s a good case that Hegseth didn’t need to say any of this out loud at the moment, and Trump’s public posting about his Putin call before informing Zelensky wasn’t great, but I’m not sure how much any of this — rather than hard facts on the ground — is going to affect the final disposition.

I take Noah’s point below, though, that any settlement is likely to be only a respite before Putin eventually goes at Ukraine again (although I’m doubtful that this would happen during the Trump administration).