Straight-line projections of the future are risky. What holds now might not obtain forever. But we humans reside on a placid island of ignorance, and we must rely on what little information we can get ahold of.

Based on current polling, the presidential prospects of the Democratic Party in the near future are in the hands of former Vice President Kamala Harris and former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg. These peas in the progressive pod rank first and second in polling about the 2028 Democratic presidential primary. Harris comes in first, with 36 percent support. Buttigieg is second, with 10 percent. No one else is in double digits.

Both Harris and Buttigieg have been mulling their futures since Donald Trump’s 2024 win. While some have speculated that Harris might become the next leader of Planned Parenthood, it is likelier that she will run for governor of California. Should she do so, she would be the clear favorite in the Democratic primary. A recent poll has her winning nearly 60 percent of Democratic primary voters. Victory in the general election would be likely, though not assured. This is Kamala Harris we are talking about, after all.

Buttigieg’s political future is less certain. An Indiana native, he has (unconvincingly) carpetbagged his way to Michigan, where he appears to be leaning toward running for the state’s open 2026 Senate seat after previously having considered running for governor. Should he do so, he would be favored to win the Democratic primary. But he’d be at a disadvantage against Mike Rogers, the Republican who just narrowly lost to Elissa Slotkin last November. A new poll has Rogers at 47 percent to Buttigieg’s 41 percent. Michiganders are thus far unimpressed by the technocratic sheen given off by the former mayor of Indiana’s fourth-largest city.

The data available now suggest that Harris and Buttigieg are the likeliest presidential options for Democrats in 2028. All the cautions about overextrapolation ought still to apply. Name recognition bias from the recently ended Biden administration also applies. Events, moreover, are fluid, unlike sexual identity; new facts, trends, and figures emerge and re-emerge constantly. Democrats better hope so, at least. For if conditions hold, these polls will have provided a terrifying vista of their possible future.